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Welcome to the Firstlinks Edition 314
Graham Hand
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Australia could unlock smarter investment and greater equity by reforming housing tax concessions. Rethinking exemptions on the family home could benefit most Australians, especially renters and owners of modest homes.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Is it better to live rich or die rich? While many of us were raised to believe that preserving wealth for the next generation is the ultimate goal, a recent gathering I attended hinted that this mindset may be shifting.
Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.
Australia’s home ownership dream is fading as prices soar beyond the reach of many. To achieve affordable prices, the way that Australians view housing as a means of building wealth may need to change.
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
When change comes we have three paths: ignore it, try to soften its blow, or adapt to it. Australia leans hard on mitigation for climate change but neglects adaptation, leaving us exposed and unprepared.
The concept of retirement is evolving for Australians, with new research showing a desire to work post-retirement and prioritize social connections. Quality financial advice and ‘practising’ retirement activities are key.
Global credit markets face a fundamental shift as US dollar dominance wanes. Australian investment-grade credit, with attractive spreads and stability, may emerge as a key beneficiary in this structural capital reallocation.
AI hype oversells machine 'intelligence', masking its true nature as pattern replication. This flood of synthetic content threatens trust and fairness - underscoring the enduring need for thoughtful human oversight.