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Edition: 238

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Small and mid-cap resources review 2018

After being shunned by most investors up to early 2016, most commodity prices have experienced stellar growth in the last two years, putting resource companies back in the frame for many portfolios.

Cuffelinks Newsletter Edition 238

  • 2 February 2018

What to expect in 2018, Howard Marks, the future of ETFs and LICs, managing diversification and volatility, the Lucky Country and (yes) Bitcoin.

Howard Marks and his 'Latest Thinking'

Howard Marks explains that he has never told investors 'it's time to get out', and while he does not see bubble conditions, future returns are likely to be subdued based on current high prices.

Still, very much, the Lucky Country

The phrase 'Lucky Country' was coined to be pejorative, but Australia has managed to acquire wealth and income equality well beyond expectations bestowed on it by chance.

Does fixed income diversify portfolio risk?

Investors shouldn't automatically assume the inclusion of bonds in a portfolio provides diversity against their equity exposure, as correlations can change in volatile markets.

Managing the threat of rising volatility risk

Volatility continues to hit record lows despite political upheaval and the start of interest rate normalisation. But, as inflation continues to take root, can active strategies help investors protect their portfolios from downside risk?

3 predictions for Australian ETFs in 2018

ETFs are seeing the growth in popularity in Australia that overseas markets have experienced for many years, and they could reach $50 billion by the end of 2018. What will drive it?

The reasons LICs have come-of-age

2017 was a watershed year for LICs, not only because of the increase in issues, but the new features that address previous shortcomings.

Bitcoin, pricing dislocation and value investing

Price is what you pay when you buy an asset, and value is what you get. Market price and the intrinsic value of a good or a company share are two different qualities.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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