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Edition: 243

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Cuffelinks Newsletter Edition 243

  • 9 March 2018

How imputation really works, Hamish Douglass on high risk, guns in banks, manager attribution, new thinking on retirement, bond defaults, inside SMSFs.

Let’s get the numbers right on imputation

Every day, an expert writes somewhere about the adverse impact of a reduction in franking credits due to a lower company tax rate. This tax rate has no impact on the after-tax returns received by Australian shareholders.

US fiscal stimulus may prove reckless

Global stock markets could face the most volatile period since 2008-09. The danger is that US fiscal stimulus could fan inflation and lead to higher-than-expected interest rates. Risks are asymmetric to the downside.

Five ways to check attribution by active managers

It’s worth deciphering how active 'active managers' are, whether their outperformance is sustainable, whether they cancel each other out and whether they are true to label. Know what you're paying for.

GPS Framework: A new way to think about SMSF retirement income

In retirement, it is the level of spending rather than investment returns which is the primary determinant of retirement outcomes, and there is a significant difference in spending patterns in later years.

What the surveys of SMSF investments reveal

Pension SMSFs will soon equal the number in accumulation, and the latest SMSF investment surveys reveal that changes in the 2016 Federal budget had a strong impact on investment patterns and flows.

Defaults low but no room for complacency

Many retail investors have turned to unrated or high-yield corporate bonds in recent years, but conditions have been favourable. Watch for the once-a-decade spikes in default rates.

Guns, banks, innocence and a Trump warning

In the 1970s, bank branches had pistols in the teller drawers and cupboards, but behind the accidents and hilarious stories lies a grim truth that is a warning to Trump's crazy idea to arm teachers.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Building a lazy ETF portfolio in 2026

What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.

Get set for a bumpy 2026

At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.

Meg on SMSFs: First glimpse of revised Division 296 tax

Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

10 fearless forecasts for 2026

The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.

13 million spare bedrooms: Rethinking Australia’s housing shortfall

We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.

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