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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 352

  • 9 April 2020
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The stock market usually bottoms well before positive data shows a turning point. The number of strong days in the market recently is a testament to the willingness of some investors to look through COVID-19 to a future of vaccines and economic stimulus. But as countries force business shut downs and demand people stay home, timing of sustained recovery is a coin toss.

The three key issues in the COVID-19 outlook

Hamish Douglass outlines the three main issues in the outbreak of coronavirus, with consequences which may change businesses and consumers forever. Will we face V-shape, U-shape or depression?

Survey: the impact on you of COVID-19

Let us know how are you coping in the current crisis. How is your portfolio performing? Have we seen the stock market bottom? When will the crisis end? What does 'the other side' look like?

How to make up for lost time on COVID-19

Bill Gates warned the world in 2015 that we were not ready for the next inevitable pandemic, and we ignored him. The Washington Post has provided free access to his updated views.

The simple mathematics of social distancing

A simple check of the mathematics explains why social distancing is so important, and in the absence of a treatment or vaccine, the only way to stop COVID-19 becoming rampant.

One trillion and counting: is government debt a problem?

With about $350 billion of new government spending announced to combat COVID-19, the obvious question is whether Australia can afford it, especially when national income will fall rapidly.

Brace yourself for (bad) tax and super news

The previous austerity of the Coalition Government has been tossed aside to deal with COVID-19, but at some point, debt will be repaid. Are policies once considered off-the-table now a target?

Hybrids throwing up opportunities … and risks

The GFC provided asset managers with a source of behavioural data they could only dream of. However, no amount of modelling can capture the full panic that some investors experience. 

Demographic change at the worst possible time

The missing piece in most analysts' views of the future of the stock market is demographics. The secular bull market until 2019 was driven by a generation that is now retiring and selling equities.  

COVID-19: Is this time really different?

All crises are inherently different, but investor reaction to them is remarkably consistent. There's no evidence to suggest this has changed, which means there are importnt lessons from history.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why it’s time to ditch the retirement journey

Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".

Australia's retirement system works brilliantly for some - but not all

The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement. 

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, 2025 edition

Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.

The 3 biggest residential property myths

I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.

AFIC on the speculative ASX boom, opportunities, and LIC discounts

In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.

Where to hide in the ‘everything bubble’

It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.

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