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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 352

  • 9 April 2020
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The stock market usually bottoms well before positive data shows a turning point. The number of strong days in the market recently is a testament to the willingness of some investors to look through COVID-19 to a future of vaccines and economic stimulus. But as countries force business shut downs and demand people stay home, timing of sustained recovery is a coin toss.

The three key issues in the COVID-19 outlook

Hamish Douglass outlines the three main issues in the outbreak of coronavirus, with consequences which may change businesses and consumers forever. Will we face V-shape, U-shape or depression?

Survey: the impact on you of COVID-19

Let us know how are you coping in the current crisis. How is your portfolio performing? Have we seen the stock market bottom? When will the crisis end? What does 'the other side' look like?

How to make up for lost time on COVID-19

Bill Gates warned the world in 2015 that we were not ready for the next inevitable pandemic, and we ignored him. The Washington Post has provided free access to his updated views.

The simple mathematics of social distancing

A simple check of the mathematics explains why social distancing is so important, and in the absence of a treatment or vaccine, the only way to stop COVID-19 becoming rampant.

One trillion and counting: is government debt a problem?

With about $350 billion of new government spending announced to combat COVID-19, the obvious question is whether Australia can afford it, especially when national income will fall rapidly.

Brace yourself for (bad) tax and super news

The previous austerity of the Coalition Government has been tossed aside to deal with COVID-19, but at some point, debt will be repaid. Are policies once considered off-the-table now a target?

Hybrids throwing up opportunities … and risks

The GFC provided asset managers with a source of behavioural data they could only dream of. However, no amount of modelling can capture the full panic that some investors experience. 

Demographic change at the worst possible time

The missing piece in most analysts' views of the future of the stock market is demographics. The secular bull market until 2019 was driven by a generation that is now retiring and selling equities.  

COVID-19: Is this time really different?

All crises are inherently different, but investor reaction to them is remarkably consistent. There's no evidence to suggest this has changed, which means there are importnt lessons from history.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Three steps to planning your spending in retirement

What happens when a superannuation expert sets up his own retirement portfolio using decades of knowledge? He finds he can afford much more investment risk in his portfolio than conventional thinking suggests.

Finding sustainable dividend stocks on the ASX

There is a small universe of companies on the ASX which are reliable dividend payers over five years, are fairly valued and are classified as ‘negligible’ or ‘low’ on both ESG risk and carbon risk.

Among key trends in Australian banks, one factor stands out

The Big Four banks look similar but they are at fundamentally different stages as they move to simpler business models. Amid challenges from operating systems, loan growth and neobank threats, one factor stands tall.

Why mega-tech growth are the best ‘value’ stocks in the market

They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.

How inflation impacts different types of investments

A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.

How to manage the run down in your income in retirement

The first of five articles on modern retirement income products that aim for an increasing pension that lasts for life and on average should not decline in real terms. They are not silver bullets but worth a look.

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