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Edition: 379

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 379

  • 15 October 2020
  • 6

It is trite and obvious to say the future is uncertain, and while COVID-19 brings extra risks, markets are always unpredictable. However, investing conditions are now more difficult than ever, mainly because the defensive options for portfolios produce little income. We explore whether investing rules have changed with new input from Howard Marks.

Have the rules of retirement investing changed?

In retirement, we still want to reduce stock volatility while generating cash flows. The two needs have not changed, but the reward expected in the old days from interest payments has gone. What should we do?

Tech continues to run on rising prices not profits

The global tech run paused in September but the boom is driven by rising prices rather than actual profits. It will end when global confidence in the prospect of endless monetary and fiscal stimulus runs out.

When defensive assets become indefensible, turn to tech

During COVID-19 and the economic recession, we are seeing a surprising new entrant to the defensive sector grouping. Technology shares have been behaving a lot like defensive shares such as food and utilities.

10 reasons low interest rates may limit growth

Ultra low interest rates could be counterproductive for economic growth. Policymakers need to rely less on monetary stimulus and be mindful of the side effects they are creating, especially for retirees and savers.

What the RC, Budget and Keating mean for aged care

Although the Aged Care Royal Commission (with Paul Keating) and Budget announcements gave the aged care sector high profile, the welcome 'granny flat' changes came with inadequate extra Home Care Packages.

Is currency exposure an unwanted risk or source of returns?

  As more Australians invest overseas, currency exposure represents a new risk. 50% hedged, 50% unhedged was once a popular ‘least regret’ approach, but there's a move to currency as a return source.

High growth and low rates incompatible with current share prices

The unrealistic value creation through lowering discount rates while assuming high growth shows a sensible link is critical. Interest rate assumptions need as much valuation focus as the cash flows of the business.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Four best-ever charts for every adviser and investor

In any year since 1875, if you'd invested in the ASX, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods. It's just one of the must-have stats that all investors should know.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

Preparing for aged care

Whether for yourself or a family member, it’s never too early to start thinking about aged care. This looks at the best ways to plan ahead, as well as the changes coming to aged care from November 1 this year.

Our experts on Jim Chalmers' super tax backdown

Labor has caved to pressure on key parts of the Division 296 tax, though also added some important nuances. Here are six experts’ views on the changes and what they mean for you.        

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