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Edition: 406

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 406 with weekend updates

  • 6 May 2021

This time last year, we were debating the shape of the recovery in alphabetic terms. Choices were the L, where the economy fell and stayed down for a long while, and the U, where the fall was followed by a period on the floor before a rise. Some offered the W, a series of rises and falls as pandemic waves took over, and the K, a widespread drop followed by strong rises and falls across sectors and economies. Are a tick or a swoosh better analogies?

Buffett says stock picking is too hard for most investors

Warren Buffett explained why he believes most investors should not pick stocks but simply own an S&P 500 index fund. "There's a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry."

Are we underestimating the peak of the V-shaped recovery?

Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.

Five reasons why growth versus value is the wrong focus

Rather than marking the end of a bull run for technology, the recent sell-off is just a healthy correction and offers a great buying opportunity into technology leaders that have strong long-term earnings growth.

Why does Australia’s skewed stock market underperform?

The Australian stock market is skewed towards mining and financial services which account for a whopping 55% of market capitalisation. In the US, these two account for only 17%. But there's more to our underperformance.

Three key trends and the power of investing in decarbonisation

Renewable energy is evolving rapidly, and incumbent and non-renewable sources of energy generation have been priced out of the market. But there are many challenges when investing in such a changing paradigm.

Making a positive impact with thematic investing

We can profit from trends that have the potential to change the world, and it's also possible to make a positive impact with thematic investing in the catastrophe and opportunity of climate change.

Real yields, inflation and risk assets in a transition

We are undergoing a multi-year transition where high near-term economic growth drives rising real rates and higher but stable inflation. It bodes well for risky assets but with volatility and changing correlations.

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Want your loved ones to inherit your super? You can’t afford to skip this one step

One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings. 

Super is catching up, but ageing is a triple-threat

An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.

Has Australia wasted the last 30 years?

The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.  

Indexation implications – key changes to 2026/27 super thresholds

Stay on top of the latest changes to superannuation rates and thresholds for 2026, including increases to transfer balance cap, concessional contributions cap, and non-concessional contributions cap.

The 5% deposit scheme is bad for homeowners and Australia

An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

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