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Edition: 504

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 504 with weekend update

  • 13 April 2023
  • 23

In one month, on 9 May 2023, Treasurer Jim Chalmers will deliver the Federal Budget for 2023/24. Early hints give a focus on fiscal consolidation and inequality, but what do those words mean? Does the Treasurer's 'values-based capitalism' suggest a reforming agenda is coming, or will politics intervene? And if Jamie Dimon and Tim Congdon are right, we need to prepare for storm clouds.

Jamie Dimon on move from virtuous to vicious cycle

Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan is the most powerful commercial banker in the world, and his just-released letter to shareholders warns that while the current economy looks fine, the storm clouds ahead differ from the past.

Are you better off in a large superannuation fund?

Underpinning the current wave of consolidation amongst Australian super funds is the belief that it helps to be big. Is this really the case and is there any advantage in being a member of a large super fund?

Falling money supply points to recession, and maybe severe

There is a connection between the money supply and the economy. The quantity of money has fallen quickly (and negative in the US), pointing to a recession in 2023. Inflation will head towards the 2% target in 2024.

How to weight companies in a successful stock portfolio

Outperforming over the long term doesn't solely depend on the stocks you select. Focus on how much you could lose relative to how much you could gain to determine how to weight stocks in your portfolio.

Planning to make your money last forever

Most people do not spend enough time thinking about achieving the best outcomes from their estate or gifts and loans before they die. Consider a trust to look after the needs of all your descendants, forever.

Global ETF trends coming soon to Australia

In Australia and globally, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) continue to grow rapidly. A new report suggests investors can expect more products in active ETFs, alternative strategies, cryptocurrency and ESG.

Should retirees forget about the 4% withdrawal rule?

When evaluating investment yields or retiree-withdrawal rates, consider not only the numerator’s percentage, but also the denominator’s effect. Doing so will lead to the only path that truly matters: the dollar trail.

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Uncomfortable truths: The real cost of living in retirement

How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

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