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Edition: 646

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 646 with weekend update

  • 22 January 2026
  • 10
  • 5

There’s one surprising area of the market that’s been left behind over the past year: quality stocks. Not only in Australia, but globally. The likes of REA, CAR Group, and Aristocrat may offer opportunities in an overpriced market.

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

No, Division 296 does not tax franking credits twice

Claims that Division 296 double-taxes franking credits misunderstand imputation: franking credits are SMSF income, not company tax, and ensure earnings are taxed once at the correct rate.

Who will get left holding the banks?

For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.

AI economic scenarios: revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?

Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?

The long-term case for compounders

Cyclical stocks surge in upswings but falter in downturns. Compounders - reliable, scalable, resilient businesses - offer smoother, superior returns over the full investment cycle for patient investors.

AREITs are not as passive as you may think

A-REITs are often viewed as passive rental vehicles, but today’s index tells a different story. Development and funds management now dominate earnings, materially increasing volatility and risk for the sector.

Australia’s quiet dairy boom — and the investment opportunity

Dairy farming offers real asset exposure, steady income and long-term growth, yet remains overlooked by investors seeking diversification beyond traditional asset classes.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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