Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 146

Taking the good times with The Bard

In the midst of heightened anxiety over the possibility of another financial crisis and market turmoil, 2016 marks the 400th anniversary of Shakespeare’s death. While most people don't pick up Shakespeare's plays when they're looking for investment advice, Shakespeare did write frequently about money matters.

“How poor are they that have not patience! What wound did ever heal but by degrees?" – Iago in Othello in Act 2, Scene 3. Or in plain English: patience pays off.

“Neither a borrower nor a lender be; For loan oft loses both itself and friend, And borrowing dulls the edge of husbandry." – Polonius in Hamlet Act I, Scene 3. In other words, don't spend money you don't have.

“Foul-cankering rust the hidden treasure frets, But gold that's put to use more gold begets." – Venus and Adonis, a poem. Or more simply: Don't put your money under the mattress.

Where the Bard and markets meet

Shakespeare’s plays often turn on the idea of fate. Controlling one’s fate seemed to have become part of the human consciousness by Shakespeare’s time but not yet the competencies to achieve that end. Instead, those who tested fate usually ended up dead. These themes are explored most vividly in The Tragedy of Julius Caesar. Caesar receives all sorts of apparent warning signs, which he ignores, proudly insisting that they point to someone else’s death. Then Caesar is assassinated.

Given the rough start to the year, you may wonder if we made the same mistake as Caesar by ignoring the warning signs. After all, our expectation for a better 2016 (compared to 2015) did not get off to a good start.

What was the trigger for such a panic in January? China, oil and Fed worries were nothing new. The same worries led us to take out portfolio hedges and reduce growth exposure from the second half of 2015 when market complacency was high. While these tail hedging strategies paid off, they were not enough to offset the negative contribution from the exposures to commodities and Asian shares.

As 2015 drew to a close, many of our sentiment and valuation indicators had made a significant positive adjustment (mostly during the August-October correction), macro indicators were showing signs of steady improvement and financial conditions in China were looking up. Then a few people got back to work in early January and listened to interviews by some hedge fund gurus on how China is about to implode and that central banks are out of ammunition. Panic buttons were hit despite the fact these gurus have been making the same predictions ever since the GFC. With markets down sharply, the next group of sellers showed up and decided to sell based on the idea that 'maybe the market is telling us something’.

Reasons not to join the panic

For now, major equity indices have found support at key support areas, as markets now focuses on:

  • Little or no signs of credit crunch even as global banks came under fire.
  • Easing financial conditions in China, and after a year of monetary easing, real yields are falling and loan growth is picking up steam.
  • Significant improvement in valuation measures. Of course, valuations are not great timing indicators and just because valuations are cheap doesn’t mean markets can’t fall further. However, when valuation signals move to historical extremes, it pays to take notice.

History shows time and time again that strong positive returns can be achieved by investing in the share market when the economic news is negative, and bad news is well covered and reflected in valuation measures. However, investors as a group fail to exploit valuation anomalies. Why? Because there is a price to pay and that’s accepting short-term volatility.

While downside selling pressure has shown signs of easing, evidence of buying pressure will need to emerge. Improved earnings prospects against much pessimistic expectations and further policy support from Europe, China, Japan and US (through delayed further rate hikes) should lead to reduced short-term volatility and a re-rating of equities. The most significant risk to market stability, however, continues to be the US dollar.

What if China implodes?

For Chinese H shares, valuations (extremely cheap), cycle (leading indicators of growth are turning up), monetary policy (significant improvement in monetary conditions), technicals (waning downside participation across individual stocks) and sentiment indicators (extreme pessimism) are all green. Rarely do we find an asset class that gets a tick across so many drivers.

Of course, none of this matters if the predictions of some US hedge fund gurus are right and Chinese banks collapse. Their calls on financial Armageddon in China have gained widespread coverage (so much that we received several emails from some worried clients).

In our view, as with all things in China, the spectre of a financial crisis is an intensely political concern. Should a financial crisis occur in China, it will be because all options to prevent such a profound dislocation have been tried and failed. Indeed, China is one of the very few countries in the world with the ability to boost fiscal support, and that’s what we have seen in recent months.

In summary, despite the intense market weakness since the start of the year, increasing calls of an imminent global recession and financial meltdown, our focus was and is to remain objective. We continue to expect market turbulence to settle down soon. Further breakdown in emerging market currencies, another bout of underperformance by cyclically-sensitive sectors and falling inflation expectations (pushing real yields higher) will be examples of such dynamics that will warrant a shift in allocation towards a more defensive stance.

 

Nader Naeimi is Head of Dynamic Markets at AMP Capital. This article is a general view and does not address the specific circumstances of any investor.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

Cyclical stocks will drive markets higher in 2025

Hold fire on your fund manager over short-term declines

5 charts that should give investors hope amidst market turmoil

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian house prices close in on world record

Sydney is set to become the world’s most expensive city for housing over the next 12 months, a new report shows. Our other major cities aren’t far behind unless there are major changes to improve housing affordability.

The case for the $3 million super tax

The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.

Tariffs are a smokescreen to Trump's real endgame

Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.

The super tax and the defined benefits scandal

Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Getting rich vs staying rich

Strategies to get rich versus stay rich are markedly different. Here is a look at the five main ways to get rich, including through work, business, investing and luck, as well as those that preserve wealth.

Latest Updates

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Superannuation

The huge cost of super tax concessions

The current net annual cost of superannuation tax subsidies is around $40 billion, growing to more than $110 billion by 2060. These subsidies have always been bad policy, representing a waste of taxpayers' money.

Planning

How to avoid inheritance fights

Inspired by the papal conclave, this explores how families can avoid post-death drama through honest conversations, better planning, and trial runs - so there are no surprises when it really matters.

Superannuation

Super contribution splitting

Super contribution splitting allows couples to divide before-tax contributions to super between spouses, maximizing savings. It’s not for everyone, but in the right circumstances, it can be a smart strategy worth exploring.

Economy

Trump vs Powell: Who will blink first?

The US economy faces an unprecedented clash in leadership styles, but the President and Fed Chair could both take a lesson from the other. Not least because the fiscal and monetary authorities need to work together.

Gold

Credit cuts, rising risks, and the case for gold

Shares trade at steep valuations despite higher risks of a recession. Amid doubts that a 60/40 portfolio can still provide enough protection through times of market stress, gold's record shines bright.

Investment strategies

Buffett acolyte warns passive investors of mediocre future returns

While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.