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9 January 2026
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We are often warned by investment managers that past performance is not an indicator of future returns, but Towers Watson goes even further: past returns are not even a reliable indicator of past returns.
They point out that retail investors are not good at ‘buy and hold’ and suffer from switching at the wrong time as they chase better results. Investors rarely achieve the reinvestment of dividends assumed in compounding calculations, which rarely allow for tax payments. A quoted return which assumes reinvestment of gross dividends is very difficult to achieve. And then there’s the emotional drain of feeling losses more than enjoying profits, as investors struggle to distinguish between a noise and a signal.
The full Towers Watson research paper is here.
Investors overestimate the risk of owning stocks and underestimate the risk of not owning them. In the long run, shares crush other major asset classes, yet it’s one thing to understand this, it’s another to being able to execute on it.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Could this be the greatest mathematical discovery of all time? An appreciation of compounding is essential for understanding investments, and an accumulation index rather than a price index better measures performance.
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We're about to add another million people to cities like Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne. How many hospitals and other essential infrastructure are needed to cater to a million more people? This breaks down the numbers.
The US dollar’s long-standing role as a ‘shock absorber’ during times of market stress is showing cracks. The ‘Liberation Day’ sell-off was a timely reminder of this, and here's what investors should do about it.
My mother developed dementia before eventually dying in June last year. She was in three aged care homes before finding the right one. Here is what I learned along the way.
China has flooded the world with electric cars and solar panels to offset the economic drag from a weak domestic property market. How long can this go on, and what are the implications for commodities and Australia?
Tesla copped criticism after its shareholders approved a package allowing Musk to earn up to $1 trillion in stock options. If only Australian businesses were more like Tesla.