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28 December 2025
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We are often warned by investment managers that past performance is not an indicator of future returns, but Towers Watson goes even further: past returns are not even a reliable indicator of past returns.
They point out that retail investors are not good at ‘buy and hold’ and suffer from switching at the wrong time as they chase better results. Investors rarely achieve the reinvestment of dividends assumed in compounding calculations, which rarely allow for tax payments. A quoted return which assumes reinvestment of gross dividends is very difficult to achieve. And then there’s the emotional drain of feeling losses more than enjoying profits, as investors struggle to distinguish between a noise and a signal.
The full Towers Watson research paper is here.
Investors overestimate the risk of owning stocks and underestimate the risk of not owning them. In the long run, shares crush other major asset classes, yet it’s one thing to understand this, it’s another to being able to execute on it.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Could this be the greatest mathematical discovery of all time? An appreciation of compounding is essential for understanding investments, and an accumulation index rather than a price index better measures performance.
Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.
I’ve been comparing property and shares for decades and while both have their place, the differences are stark. When tax, costs, and liquidity are weighed, property looks less compelling than its reputation suggests.
Trump may be right on two trends: nations are shifting from aspiration to essentials and from global dependence to self-reliance, pushing capital toward security, infrastructure, and energy.
Gold has had a remarkable 2025, with the spot price likely to post its strongest return since 1971. This explores the key factors that will shape the outlook for the yellow metal next year, and long-term.
Critics like Clime's John Abernethy have questioned many aspects of defined benefit pensions for public servants. This is an attempted rebuttal, suggesting these pensions aren't the problem they're made out to be.
Aircraft constraints are holding back global air travel. Those constraints should soon ease which combined with a structural boom in travel demand could be a boon for global airport stocks.
Search is changing fast. AI tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini are reshaping how we find information, opening new opportunities for innovation, user engagement, and future revenue growth.