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15 July 2026
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We are often warned by investment managers that past performance is not an indicator of future returns, but Towers Watson goes even further: past returns are not even a reliable indicator of past returns.
They point out that retail investors are not good at ‘buy and hold’ and suffer from switching at the wrong time as they chase better results. Investors rarely achieve the reinvestment of dividends assumed in compounding calculations, which rarely allow for tax payments. A quoted return which assumes reinvestment of gross dividends is very difficult to achieve. And then there’s the emotional drain of feeling losses more than enjoying profits, as investors struggle to distinguish between a noise and a signal.
The full Towers Watson research paper is here.
Investors overestimate the risk of owning stocks and underestimate the risk of not owning them. In the long run, shares crush other major asset classes, yet it’s one thing to understand this, it’s another to being able to execute on it.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Could this be the greatest mathematical discovery of all time? An appreciation of compounding is essential for understanding investments, and an accumulation index rather than a price index better measures performance.
Proposed Budget changes to taxation are casting new uncertainty over testamentary trusts, prompting closer scrutiny of estate planning structures and the real implications of reforms still taking shape.
Beneath the dominance of the ASX's largest stocks, much of the market has been left behind. High-quality companies are now trading at levels rarely seen, offering opportunities for investors willing to look deeper.
New CGT rules could tip the scales in the super vs non-super debate. For those facing the Division 296 tax, the case for withdrawing has gotten more complex. A "comparison rate" tool may help assess decisions.
The 30% minimum tax on capital gains sits at the heart of the budget's proposed reforms. Yet the mechanics reveal anomalies that introduce unexpected distortions that raise questions about its design.
The downfall of the giant and three lessons for investors.
The defining challenge of retirement isn't just about building wealth, it's about converting your lifetime savings into sustainable income. A holistic understanding of different strategies can improve long-term outcomes.
Treasury has confirmed the exemption many families were hoping for. But buried in the fine print are two conditions that could leave some wills on the wrong side of the exemption, despite years of careful planning.
Lithium's latest sell-off has punished ASX miners as prices remain hostage to shifting expectations. The key challenge is navigating a market prone to extreme volatility despite a strong case for the long-term demand outlook.
The implications of CGT reform are far and wide. As the 50% discount gives way to inflation indexation, turnover and return profiles may become critical drivers of after-tax performance. Some strategies face a far greater hit.
Our retirement system was built around assumptions that no longer hold. Lower homeownership, longer lifespans and changing expectations are exposing cracks that policymakers and super funds need to address.
Many people spend years planning financially for retirement but little time preparing for what comes next. Four months in, here are the surprising lessons i've learnt on finding purpose, social connection and healthy habits.
As tax reforms reshape investment incentives, investors should rethink what quality investing means in the uniquely concentrated Australian market, where traditional frameworks may not translate as effectively.
Why are tech giants pouring billions into datacentres when the economics look questionable? The most dangerous words in investing may be: "everyone else is doing it". Today's AI boom has striking parallels with the shale bust.