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4 March 2026
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With the RBA having lifted interest rates by 4.25% over 18 months, many investors now see cash as an attractive investment option. That ignores the silent tax of inflation, which makes other assets better investment alternatives.
Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.
Bull markets tend to follow their own momentum until they hit a clear opposing force. The economy is like a spring about to be uncoiled with the most obvious restraint on the horizon is the return of inflation.
Try having a direct conversation with a board member without going through the company's PR team. Boards can become managed and co-opted by company executives and forget who they work for.
The ability of countries to support their economies today turns on fiscal practices set well before this crisis. Increasing levels of debt escalate overall risk, and tie our hands in the future.
Share markets are booming not because companies are increasing earnings, but because falling interest rates are driving asset prices ever-higher. It is artificial and it will not end well.
At a time when value investing is under attack, a reminder that Benjamin Graham heavily influenced Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, and they have built his ideas into broad investing strategies.
Many investors are deluding themselves expecting high returns without taking risks, and it has poor consequences for retirement planning and setting goals. It pays to be more realistic.
It’s much easier to measure returns than the risk involved in generating those returns. Yet, it’s crucial to understand risk because in certain markets, higher returns may simply be coming from taking more risk.
RC lies and damned lies, Blue Sky shorting, end of the bull run, blockchain founder, tax-free pensions, Smith v Jones, merit of two SMSFs, Third Link.
Everyone’s calling for the end of the long bull-run in equities. But we don’t know if the end is a few months or a few years away, and technological change is so vast that historical lessons need to be tempered.
What to expect in 2018, Howard Marks, the future of ETFs and LICs, managing diversification and volatility, the Lucky Country and (yes) Bitcoin.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.