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5 March 2026
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Are market leaders overpriced - or rightly priced? When Netwealth, Fisher & Paykel, and Aristocrat outperform their 'bargain' peers for years, it’s time to rethink what cheap really costs investors long-term.
Economic growth in Australia looks to have bottomed, which means it makes sense to selectively add to cyclical exposures on the ASX in addition to key thematics like decarbonisation and technological change.
The lessons from 22 years in the market include the lower volatility of industrial shares, how a short book differs from a long, the best leading indicators of change, plus stocks to withstand tougher times.
Some of nabtrade’s most popular stocks are trading substantially off their highs, and investors should consider whether the stories that drove their popularity in the early stages of Covid are still intact.
Is it more difficult to find stocks to short in a rising market? What impact has central bank dominance had over stock selection? How do you combine income and growth in a portfolio? Where are the opportunities?
Look for a company whose prices are rising faster than inflation without customer churn, while leveraging its existing strong relationships to cross sell or up sell or some mix of both.
There’s a lot of talk of the WAAAX stocks causing fund underperformance, but they’re simply not big enough compared with choosing the wrong winners and losers among the large cap stocks.
Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.
Frustratingly for investors in micro-caps, the larger companies which now include the WAAAX market darlings are running quickly ahead of their smaller cousins. It's a waiting game for the tide to turn.
Although some domestic cyclical companies currently offer value, the attraction of offshore growth is a key factor for investors, including strong Australian companies with global aspirations.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.