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30 March 2026
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The US stock market sits in prolonged bubble territory, driven by AI enthusiasm. History suggests eventual mean reversion, reminding investors to weigh potential risks against current market optimism.
Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?
It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.
One sign of today's speculative market froth is that retail investors are winning, and winning big. It bears remarkable similarities to 1929 and 1999, and this story may not have a happy ending either.
While Chris Bloomstan doesn't have the track record of his hero, it's impressive nonetheless. And he's recently warned that today has uncanny resemblances to the 1990s tech bubble and US returns are likely to be disappointing.
Bull markets tend to follow their own momentum until they hit a clear opposing force. The economy is like a spring about to be uncoiled with the most obvious restraint on the horizon is the return of inflation.
As fewer professionals actively research the merits of a company’s prospects, stocks become disproportionately driven by capital flows. Prices disconnect from fundamentals and there's no better example than Tesla.
Stocks have rallied hard creating a virus bubble, but will this run for years or collapse in a matter of months? The market is giving a second chance to leave so head for the exit before there's a rush.
Markets are overlooking the obvious risks as traders pass the parcel to the next buyer. Even central bankers believe: “There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.”
We are not in the heady market conditions of 1987 at the moment, but the biggest problem facing investors will be the urge to panic sell after a major fall, similar to the desire that drives buying at the top.
Bitcoins are experiencing a massive price hike, and there's little history to draw on to guide the future. However, another market provides a remarkable insight into what can happen when the optimism turns.
The widely-quoted Shiller P/E measure of the S&P500 now stands well above its long-term average, but is this a reliable signal that the US market is seriously overpriced?
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.
The 20 years after Peter Costello left Treasury have been deemed wasted...by Peter Costello. The missed opportunities for Australia began long before.
The best way to deal with the incoming Division 296 tax on superannuation is likely doing nothing. Earnings will be taxed regardless of where the money sits, so here are some important considerations.
An ‘affordability’ scheme making the county more vulnerable to economic shocks and contributing to the deteriorating financial situation of everyday Australians.