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Monday, 20 September 2021
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Bull markets tend to follow their own momentum until they hit a clear opposing force. The economy is like a spring about to be uncoiled with the most obvious restraint on the horizon is the return of inflation.
As fewer professionals actively research the merits of a company’s prospects, stocks become disproportionately driven by capital flows. Prices disconnect from fundamentals and there's no better example than Tesla.
Stocks have rallied hard creating a virus bubble, but will this run for years or collapse in a matter of months? The market is giving a second chance to leave so head for the exit before there's a rush.
Markets are overlooking the obvious risks as traders pass the parcel to the next buyer. Even central bankers believe: “There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.”
We are not in the heady market conditions of 1987 at the moment, but the biggest problem facing investors will be the urge to panic sell after a major fall, similar to the desire that drives buying at the top.
Bitcoins are experiencing a massive price hike, and there's little history to draw on to guide the future. However, another market provides a remarkable insight into what can happen when the optimism turns.
The widely-quoted Shiller P/E measure of the S&P500 now stands well above its long-term average, but is this a reliable signal that the US market is seriously overpriced?
Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?
Despite the recent falls, the performance of Chinese shares over the last 12 months is still above Japan, Europe, the US and Australia. But the Chinese market is a casino, and currency movements are more important.
Australians are heavily invested in residential property and the impact of a property crash is obvious for those assets. But the consequences for many other investments should be considered.
Australia may not be facing a stockmarket or property bubble right now, but there are early signs of concern. It's worth knowing what to look for and safeguarding against personal loss.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.