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4 March 2026
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Money supply provides an early and good read on whether the cash rate setting is transmitting to accelerating, steady or slowing price pressures. This explores recent data on money supply and what lies ahead for inflation.
Rising prices have a big impact on retirement outcomes yet our most common gauge of inflation – the consumer price index – misses several important household costs for retirees.
Financial commentators seem to have forgotten the leading cause of inflation: growth in the supply of money. Warren Bird explains the link and explores where it suggests inflation is headed.
The consumer price index is supposed to reflect the cost of living but no longer does. The ABS publishes other estimates that provide a more accurate picture of our living expenses, and how much they've recently risen.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Like negative gearing, discounted capital gains tax, especially on residential investment properties, is criticised for giving investors an edge over first-home buyers. A discount is justified but at what level?
Amid the blur of company results, it's vital to step back and check the major factors affecting results: inflation, consumer spending and cashflow. What are the companies emphasising in their one-on-one meetings?
Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.
A back-to-basics explainer on the challenges arising from the impact of inflation on financial markets, reminding investors to hold some assets that act as a defence against rising inflation.
Why are prices rising but not the CPI? When we measure inflation, we aren’t measuring raw price changes, we’re measuring the pleasure-adjusted or utility-adjusted price changes, and we use it incorrectly.
The 50% CGT discount has little justification during low inflation and it encourages capital gains over income. The preferable system is the indexation in effect prior to 1999, and it will help housing affordability.
It's a difficult task, looking for good ‘inflation plus’ exposure over a long period such as post-retirement. Research into appropriate asset classes shows low correlations make the problem hard to solve.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.