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19 May 2025
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Over the past few years, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been subjected to a blizzard of criticism. Yet, despite its flaws, it may just have engineered that rarest of beasts: the fabled soft economic landing.
With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.
The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency brings the prospect of more US tax cuts and deregulation, but also more tariff hikes, trade wars and policy uncertainty. Here's what it means for markets going forward.
The current difficulties confronting housing policy partially stem from an explosion of mortgage debt. We've engineered a price for housing that will cause a severe problem for future generations – if it isn't addressed.
The RBA's prescription to hike rates may not work to lower inflation into the bank’s 2-3% target band. If anything, there appears to be a positive correlation between interest rates and inflation.
News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.
Investors often overlook the extent to which expected increases in cash rates are already built into longer-term rates. Bonds may be attractive even as cash rates rise if the market is assuming too much tightening.
Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, explained last week why the RBA bought $280 billion of bonds in its QE programme, but are we paying the price for this stimulus as rising inflation shocks central bankers?
Central banks need data and sources as up-to-date as possible, yet Australia's Reserve Bank sees a new CPI only once a quarter. And the US Fed's rate committee waits two months for its next meeting.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?
Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.
While many chase high yields, true investment power lies in companies that steadily grow dividends. This strategy, rooted in patience and discipline, quietly compounds wealth and anchors investors through market turbulence.
The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?