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Tuesday, 21 September 2021
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China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
The outlook for emerging market debt in 2021 revolves around liquidity, uneven recoveries and debt sustainability. Damage has been done to many countries’ finances and watch for central banks withdrawing support.
Up, down or sideways? From disruption to de-globalisation, these six key themes will determine the sectors and companies that will do well in portfolios in coming years.
It's an election budget with money to spend, driven by income and company taxes. It again relies on China, so as the economy and global growth stalls, the long-term revenues are doubtful with spending locked in.
Residential aged care costs are difficult to understand at any time, but many aged care facilities are introducing new fees which make comparisons even more difficult as cost rise.
The close relationship between the Japanese share market, Japanese yen and the Australian share market shows that Japanese economic policy and a further boost from 'Abe-nomics' may have implications here.
It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.
Unemployment and inflation seem to be heading in different directions in Australia and the United States, but the outcomes for interest rates and equity markets might be the same.
Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.
Despite the Federal Reserve's tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.
The topic of rising interest rates is heating up following recent increases in US long term bond yields. What does this mean for the value of your existing fixed income investments, and what are the bond alternatives?
Quantitative Easing has been the order of the day for most of the major global economies. Increasing bank liquidity is meant to stimulate consumer and business lending. But for the US, things haven't quite gone to plan.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.