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Monday, 14 June 2021
Recently trending Super changes, the Budget and 2021 versus 2022Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality checkGrantham interview on the coming day of reckoningWhoyagonnacall? 10 unspoken risks buying off-the-planBuffett says stock picking is too hard for most investors
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A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.
Consensus growth forecasts are far too conservative, and the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, giving further boosts.
US growth forecasts for 2021 are as high as 8%, so is the massive stimulus a superfluous ‘sugar hit’ amid shrinking spare capacity? High government debt points to taxes and reduced benefits, with inflation risks.
Bull markets tend to follow their own momentum until they hit a clear opposing force. The economy is like a spring about to be uncoiled with the most obvious restraint on the horizon is the return of inflation.
The Australian market overall finished flat for calendar 2020, but the pandemic delivered big wins and losses. The companies, sectors and companies you invested in delivered vastly different results.
We need to think hard about how we work and live in the future. How do governments, health gurus, individuals, politicians, businesses and social groups need to act in 2021, both in dealing with COVID and thereafter?
Buoyed by Australia’s response and emergence from the pandemic and recession, the negative short‑term economic costs and disruption do not detract from the longer‑term positive case for Australian equities.
Despite the wave of optimism currently sweeping markets, some negative factors demand caution. Extraordinarily low interest rates is pushing up equities as investors choose the 'lesser evil' in asset allocations.
China takes 40% of our exports and BHP, RIO and Fortescue generate 41% of Australian listed company profits. Trade tensions are hitting more companies and they need to diversify their revenue sources.
Questions on the stock market/economy disconnect, how to focus long term, technology's growing role, income in a low-rate world, Modern Monetary Theory and endless debt and the tooth fairy.
The impact of the pandemic on Australia's debt and deficit has forced the government into borrowing on a scale unimaginable at the start of 2020. What are the implications, and what is even more important?
It's tempting to focus on the negatives of the pandemic, the US election, the China/US cold war and inequality. But technology is delivering benefits that even wealthy people in the past could not have imagined.
Josh Frydenberg's third budget contained changes to superannuation and other rules but their effective date is expected to be 1 July 2022. Take care not to confuse them with changes due on 1 July 2021.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
All new apartment buildings have defects, and inexperienced owners assume someone else will fix them. But developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money unless someone fights them. Part 1
Warren Buffett explained why he believes most investors should not pick stocks but simply own an S&P 500 index fund. "There's a lot more to picking stocks than figuring out what’s going to be a wonderful industry."
The global recession came quickly and deeply but it has given way to a strong rebound. What are the lessons for investors, how should a portfolio change and what role will inflation play?