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8 February 2026
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New research explains why high valuations, low dividends and bullish sentiment rarely coexist with strong long-term returns after extended bull markets.
Many investors are hesitant to buy into a market that feels like it’s already climbed too far, too fast. But what does nearly a century of market history suggest about investing at peaks?
Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.
Semiconductors are used to make microchips and are essential to a vast range of technology and devices. This looks at what’s driving demand for chips, how the industry is evolving, and favoured stocks to play the theme.
The Australian stock market has had almost 40 dips of 10% or more since 1920, with many of these triggered by weakness in the US. What would have happened in each case had you 'bought the dip'?
Eight of the ASX's top 10 stocks are more than a hundred years old, while in the US there's just one. It points to our market being filled with low-growth dinosaurs compared to the US where innovation and renewal rule.
Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.
For decades, cyclically adjusted P/E ratios have been a common and widely accepted gauge of market valuation. But as the financial landscape continues to evolve, so too must our tools for understanding it.
So you want to buy a speculative stock in the hope that it goes to the moon and you can retire in the Bahamas. There's only one problem - once you start purchasing these types of stocks, it's often hard to stop.
Many are comparing Nvidia’s historic run to Cisco Systems in the 1990s. Here is a thought experiment comparing the returns of Cisco since that period to a more conservative alternative, and the results might surprise you.
Equity investing pays off over long terms but comes with risks in the short term that many people cannot tolerate, especially retirees preserving capital. There are ways to invest in stocks with little downside.
How do you separate skill from luck in the performance of a fund manager? Investing is a mix of art and science in a highly-competitive industry full of smart people. Here are tips on what to look for.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.