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30 December 2025
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Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
The conventional academic view is that markets are efficient as they price in all available information effectively. Yet history shows the market can be wildly wrong on stocks, as may be the case with AI and China today.
With heightened uncertainty and the market near record highs, it's important to focus on companies that are largely insulated from unpredictable macroeconomic risks. CSL and Corporate Travel Management fit the bill.
Human beings are storytelling animals yet it’s the job of investors to separate truth from fiction. And the truth lies in numbers, the company earnings and the multiples attached to those earnings.
Rather than futile attempts to pick the bottom of the market, it's better to focus on improved valuations in quality companies and wait for the recovery in their businesses. But there are also problems to avoid.
When a value investor holds a large proportion of companies with good growth potential, does that mean a style has changed? With customer acquisition costs now expensed upfront, economic reality is understated.
Investors are convinced that Australia is going to have a recession, and that it’s going to be a humdinger. Several cyclical companies are trading at valuation levels reflecting the certainty of an uncertain recession.
It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.
Active managers need to know what factors are distorting asset prices. This interview with Ted Maloney, CIO of MFS, explores how much of 10 years of growth has been pulled forward and the impact of Reddit users.
The unrealistic value creation through lowering discount rates while assuming high growth shows a sensible link is critical. Interest rate assumptions need as much valuation focus as the cash flows of the business.
How does an analyst value a stock which has traded between $8 and $50 in two months? Regardless, Afterpay has delivered Australia's youngest billionaire, and thousands have enjoyed the wild ride.
Promoters of new listings can over-hype a loss-making company to achieve a desired valuation, but the market is increasingly critical of expensive IPOs. There are many ways to value the future.
Retirement isn’t a clean financial arc. Income shocks, health costs and family pressures hit at random, exposing the limits of age-based planning and the myth of a predictable “retirement journey".
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
In an interview with Firstlinks, CEO Mark Freeman discusses how speculative ASX stocks have crushed blue chips this year, companies he likes now, and why he’s confident AFIC’s NTA discount will close.
It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.