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Saturday, 18 September 2021
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As more Australians invest overseas, currency exposure represents a new risk. 50% hedged, 50% unhedged was once a popular ‘least regret’ approach, but there's a move to currency as a return source.
Value investing is a long-cycle play, but a decade (and counting) of waiting for mean reversion has tested the faith of even long-horizon investors. Some basic principles are worth assessing.
Handling extreme winners is a complex task. Conventional wisdom such as “you never go broke taking a profit” often leaves a lot of money on the table as strong growth stocks continue to run.
In this update of the 'winners versus losers' investment hypothesis, momentum is the winner - again. It's only a 'paper' portfolio but it suggests consistent behavioural biases among investors.
A simple strategy of backing prior winners and shorting prior losers has outperformed again in 2015, supporting arguments for 'momentum' investing. It's an example of a factor that can be used across a portfolio.
In 1993, researchers in the US studied the phenomenon of winning stocks continuing to outperform losing stocks. Using both long and short positions one could theoretically outperform the market on a regular basis.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.