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Wednesday, 29 September 2021
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Drawing on experience as a bank analyst who studied the legislative process during the GFC, an internet analyst now has a unique insight into three key risks faced by Big Tech and implications for share prices.
Investors with heavy allocations to a broad US index should check how much is exposed to tech stocks, especially when valuations look a bit steep. It might be time to reallocate to other sectors or styles.
When Australian companies are marked against their role in tech disruption, stock market returns are higher for companies with higher tech disruption scores. They also benefit when valued using low interest rates.
The global tech run paused in September but the boom is driven by rising prices rather than actual profits. It will end when global confidence in the prospect of endless monetary and fiscal stimulus runs out.
Central banks have created surplus capital looking for a home, and Tesla is a classic example of an unprofitable tech company that has benefited. It survives on a dream rather than the ability to make cars.
Most S&P500 companies are doing well with recent reported earnings above expectations. In the tech sector, the Big Five (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet) have also diversified their income sources.
The claims that the leading tech companies are expensive overlooks the sustainable and growing earnings, plus they have new developments which have only scratched the surface.
The Australian start-up and venture capital scene is coming of age, and new changes to legislation will make it easier to crowd-fund without the complexity of traditional equity raisings.
We tend to overlook the older technology companies as we marvel at the likes of Facebook and Google, but technology evangelism has paid off over the long term.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
The survey drew a fantastic 2,000 responses with over 1,000 comments and polar opposite views on what is good policy. Do most people believe the home should be in the age pension asset test, and what do they say?
Critics of franking credits are missing the main point. The taxable income of shareholders/taxpayers must also include the company tax previously paid to the ATO before the dividend was distributed. It is fair.