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1 March 2026
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It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
OpenAI’s business model isn't sustainable in the long run. If markets catch on, the company could face higher borrowing costs, or worse, and that would have major spillover effects.
The AI boom has sparked investor euphoria, but under the surface, US big tech is showing cracks - slowing growth, surging capex, and fading dominance signal it's time to question conventional tech optimism.
Companies trading at over 10x revenue now account for over 20% of the MSCI World index, levels not seen since the dotcom bubble. Can these shares create lasting value, or are they destined to unravel?
The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2023? It's time to select the winner.
The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks in the US have had an incredible run and many investors are wondering how long it can last. While it may be tempting to take profits in these stocks, it could prove a costly error.
Many investors have written off the tech sector after last year's bloodbath. But tech is entering a new phase of growth and dominance, fuelled by innovation and AI, and there are compelling ways to play this theme.
The software bubble appears to have popped but not everyone is convinced. There are many lessons from the US shale boom that are broadly applicable to the recent software boom, and it doesn't bode well for tech companies.
It was a joy ride while it lasted but the free money era could not last. The consequences of the misallocation of capital into poor companies is now playing out and shareholders face billions of dollars in losses.
A check on price chart action for dozens of favourite tech stocks shows how dramatic the rises and falls have been. Where to from here? There's better value but profits need to remain strong or prices will fall.
Three companies rank as amazing 'hyperscalers' which will revolutionise industries as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning change the way business is done. They deserve a place in most portfolios.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.