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26 February 2026
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Rising urban housing costs in Australia are outpacing wage growth, particularly in cities like Sydney and Melbourne. This is leading to an exodus of workers, especially in their 30s, from cities to regions.
There are reasons to believe inflation will stay under control, and although we may see a slowing in the global economy, two companies should benefit from the themes of 'Stable Compounders' and 'Structural Winners'.
A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.
Why are prices rising but not the CPI? When we measure inflation, we aren’t measuring raw price changes, we’re measuring the pleasure-adjusted or utility-adjusted price changes, and we use it incorrectly.
The market has been looking for inflation for most of the last decade. Low interest rates should increase consumption, borrowing and demand and result in higher prices. What killed inflation?
The ‘economics of retirement outcomes’ is a concept that explores how economic developments can affect retirement outcomes. The current soft labour market is one of those developments.
With the budget in deficit, debate about the sustainability of welfare and spending gathers pace. Looking at pension indexation alone, the two methods used differ by $300 billion in revenue between now and 2050.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
There’s one surprising area of the market that’s been left behind over the past year: quality stocks. Not only in Australia, but globally. The likes of REA, CAR Group, and Aristocrat may offer opportunities in an overpriced market.