Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 386

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 386

  •   3 December 2020
  • 1
  •      
  •   

Weekend market update: Both the S&P500 and NASDAQ posted gains of around 0.8% on Friday despite the record numbers of COVID-related deaths in the US and a weak jobs number. Over the week, the US was 1.7% higher to a new record, while Australia increased 0.5% on the back of surging iron ore prices. Rising commodity prices are pushing the $A higher, now about US$0.74 versus a March 2020 low of US$0.62.

***

Last week, I moved my home for the first time in 31 years. It was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rationalise everything from books to documents to furniture, much of which we would have kept until death do us part without the move. It made me feel great sympathy for those people who are unwillingly forced to move accommodation regularly, such as renters subject to the short lease conditions in Australia. We had months to plan our move, but regularly relocating lives and schools at a month's notice must be draining. It's another dimension to the value of owning your own home which does not feature in the debate on early access to superannuation.

Most people read our articles but probably then don't go back to check the comments. Last week, our pieces on the Retirement Income Review drew over 50 comments showing the strong feelings on the Review's conclusions. This week, Jon Kalkman continues our study of the Final Report by asking whether the panel members really understand the consequences of their findings for retirees who aspire to more than the age pension.

Our feature article is investing guidance from Hamish Douglass from the sidelines of the recent Morningstar Individual Investor Conference, with three short videos and transcripts with Lex Hall. It's a fascinating time for investing with great optimism around vaccines, a clear Biden win, signs of strong growth in Australia and the question of whether 2021 will reward different styles than during the pandemic.

The latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey (FMS) suggests professionals are positioning for change. As the chart below shows, the big moves over the first half of November 2020 were into small caps over large caps, into emerging markets, more value than growth and less defensive in cash, bonds and staples. Energy was back in favour. These moves are counter to the best positioning in 2020. The FMS growth outlook is strong, with managers rotating into previously hard-hit companies and sectors.

Also this week, we dive into the new numbers on the cost of running an SMSF versus fees on retail or industry funds. Turns out the break even is around $250,000 based on administration costs rather than investments.

Still on SMSFs, David Macri suggests that while trustees might handle their own cash and domestic equities, there are particular types of investments worth leaving to the professionals for a better outcome.

Building on this theme, the White Paper this week from BetaShares shows three global tactical trades that can be executed using ETFs listed in Australia.

When we hear an investing term such as 'growth' or 'momentum' or 'quality', it's tempting to put all funds into one bucket and assume they will perfrom in a similar way. Zunjar Sanzgiri takes a look at a popular segment of the Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) market and shows how funds with the same name differ markedly.

Then Aaron Minney makes a great point about retirement planning, showing why using average life expectancy produces misleading outcomes. All retirees and their financial planners need to consider this piece.

Finally, David Walsh delves deeper into the numbers which are supposed to show that local and global markets are seeing a big wave of Zombie companies propped up by supportive government policies.

Finally, with Australian states reluctantly opening their borders as community-based transmission is negligible, no such caution for Thanksgiving Day last week in the United States. Flightradar24 monitors jet movements, and millions of Americans honoured the tradition of celebrating the harvest. While Australia can afford to take its time watching the encouraging test results, the vaccine cannot come too quickly in a country with 280,000 deaths and 14 million cases. The US recorded its worst day for COVID deaths on record last week.

 

Graham Hand, Managing Editor

 

Latest updates

PDF version of Firstlinks Newsletter

ASX Listed Bond and Hybrid rate sheet from NAB/nabtrade

Indicative Listed Investment Company (LIC) NTA Report from Bell Potter

Latest LIC Quarterly Report from Bell Potter

Plus updates and announcements on the Sponsor Noticeboard on our website

 

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

5 charts every retiree must see…

Retirement can be daunting for Australians facing financial uncertainty. Understand your goals, longevity challenges, inflation impacts, market risks, and components of retirement income with these crucial charts.

Why super returns may be heading lower

Five mega trends point to risks of a more inflation prone and lower growth environment. This, along with rich market valuations, should constrain medium term superannuation returns to around 5% per annum.

The hidden property empire of Australia’s politicians

With rising home prices and falling affordability, political leaders preach reform. But asset disclosures show many are heavily invested in property - raising doubts about whose interests housing policy really protects.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Why I dislike dividend stocks

If you need income then buying dividend stocks makes perfect sense. But if you don’t then it makes little sense because it’s likely to limit building real wealth. Here’s what you should do instead.

Superannuation

Meg on SMSFs: Indexation of Division 296 tax isn't enough

Labor is reviewing the $3 million super tax's most contentious aspects: lack of indexation and the tax on unrealised gains. Those fighting for change shouldn’t just settle for indexation of the threshold.

Shares

Will ASX dividends rise over the next 12 months?

Market forecasts for ASX dividend yields are at a 30-year low amid fears about the economy and the capacity for banks and resource companies to pay higher dividends. This pessimism seems overdone.

Shares

Expensive market valuations may make sense

World share markets seem toppy at first glance, though digging deeper reveals important nuances. While the top 2% of stocks are pricey, they're also growing faster, and the remaining 98% are inexpensive versus history.

Fixed interest

The end of the strong US dollar cycle

The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.

Investment strategies

Today’s case for floating rate notes

Market volatility and uncertainty in 2025 prompt the need for a diversified portfolio. Floating Rate Notes offer stability, income, and protection against interest rate risks, making them a valuable investment option.

Strategy

Breaking down recent footy finals by the numbers

In a first, 2025 saw AFL and NRL minor premiers both go out in straight sets. AFL data suggests the pre-finals bye is weakening the stranglehold of top-4 sides more than ever before.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.