Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 380

Are debt and its servicing cost serious worries?

The world is swimming in debt, as high as it had been before the GFC in 2008, with government debt-bingeing establishing all-time records due to the mishandling of COVID-19 health-wise.

The world is heading for a debt level of 300% of GDP or more, Japan is nudging 400%, and four other countries are heading over 300% in 2020. Among the big 10 economies, our nearest neighbour - Indonesia - is the least indebted with less than 100% of GDP.

Australia joins the debt party

Until March 2020, Australia was relatively well-behaved, with a total debt of less than 250% of GDP. Our government debt, at 37% of GDP in 2019, was only bested in the developed world by Switzerland at 26%. The main risk was our household debt (mostly mortgage debt) at 120% of GDP.

All that changed with the announcement in the first half of 2020 that we would be spending $360 billion to fight COVID-19, despite there being less deaths from the pandemic than normal respiratory deaths (mainly the over-70s age group) in previous years.

On the Budget night, the cheque book came out again. Now we have prospects of a government debt of $1.7 trillion by end 2024, or over 80% of GDP. That would put Australia’s total debt closer to the 275% of GDP mark.

Is this serious? Yes, but not debilitating.

The economy will almost surely suffer more from the shutdowns, and general deprivation of commerce and liberty, including the controversial border closure of 2020. Around 1-in-7 businesses shut down in good years, or some 280,000 businesses of the total 2.3 million. That share may rise to 1-in-5 or 6 for a year or two.

Debt versus servicing costs

Debt is always less of an issue than its servicing cost be it as a share of government revenues, business revenues or household disposable incomes.

So, interest rates are just as important as the debt levels. The chart below provides perspective on government debt servicing costs via the 10-year government bond rates across various countries.

Australia’s bond rate means that, even if it climbed back to 2% by 2024, it would only account for 5% or less of all government revenue (taxes and other income).

The next chart shows the long history of 10-year bond interest rates, which have averaged 5.5% over the past 150 years, but are now less than 1% and seemingly at a record low.

But when converted to real interest rates, by deducting inflation, we are far from a record low. Indeed, there have been at least 15 years when the real interest rates were lower than in 2020.

What all this means is that the debt and its servicing is probably less of a problem than repairing and re-building the wrecked economy, especially in Victoria.

We can service the debt. But of course, if and when bond rates go back to 5% (a long way off it would seem), governments will pray for higher inflation for several years to dilute the debt mountain. That’s what happened in the 1950s, when inflation (including one year at 25.25% in 1953) diluted the WWII national debt of 110% of GDP to a very manageable share of GDP.

More serious than debt

The more serious problems for the next 5-10 years are:

  • How to get the economy back on its feet and restore our standard of living (GDP/capita) back to the March 2020 level before 2025.
  • What to do differently with the next pandemic, bound to arrive well before the end of this decade.
  • How to restore our international trade in the huge and fast-growing Asia region with the problems and tensions there, from COVID-19 (closed borders), trade wars and hegemony.

We need better long-term vision, innovation, reforms (I have covered the subjects of parliamentary, labour market, taxation and commerce reform previously), statesmanship and management than we have had over the past 10-15 years or more. And that goes for corporate Australia too: we are lagging well behind world best practice (WBP) innovation, performance and profitability.

That said, who of us would prefer to live elsewhere in this extraordinary and turbulent world of the third decade of this 21st century?

 

Phil Ruthven AO is Founder of the Ruthven Institute, Founder of IBISWorld and widely recognised as Australia’s leading futurist.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

Australia’s default: who do you rescue?

Rising bond yields complicate the COVID recovery

Biden is stimulating an economy already enjoying a sugar hit

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Retirement is a risky business for most people

While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The challenges with building a dividend portfolio

Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.

How much do you need to retire?

Australians are used to hearing dire warnings that they don't have enough saved for a comfortable retirement. Yet most people need to save a lot less than you might think — as long as they meet an important condition.

Latest Updates

Superannuation

So, we are not spending our super balances. So what!

A Grattan Institute report suggests lifetime annuities as a solution to people not spending their super balances. The issue is whether underspending is the real problem or a sign of more fundamental failings in our retirement system.

Investment strategies

The two best ways to maximise dividend income

People often marvel at Warren Buffett now getting 60 cents in annual dividends on every dollar he invested in Coca-Cola 30 years ago. What’s often overlooked are the secrets to how he achieved this phenomenal result.

Taxation

The fetish for lower taxes has gone too far

Since the time of Reagan and Thatcher, most business leaders and investors have clung to a dogmatic belief that lower taxes bring higher profits and economic growth. The truth, as always, is far more complicated than that.

Superannuation

Meg on SMSFs: Winding up market linked pensions with care

Due to recently-introduced rules, many people with old style pensions, also known as legacy pensions, will look to wind them up this year. The temporary amnesty allowing these pensions to be stopped should be navigated with care.

Property

Why our Torrens title property system hasn't been adopted elsewhere

Far from an outdated relic, Torrens title appears to be the revolutionary, cheap, low-risk way to handle property dealings. Here's a look at why this Australian invention from the 1850s hasn't caught on more widely.

Property

DigiCo REIT and the data centre opportunity

Data centres offer compelling growth prospects. But their potential hasn't gone unnoticed, and DigiCo appears to be buying properties in a seller’s market, resulting in better opportunities being found elsewhere.

Retirement

The $1.2 trillion sea change facing Australian investors

Over the next decade, three million Australians will shift from accumulating wealth to living off it. Those taking part in the great migration need a sound strategy that delivers sustainable income and protection from market bumps.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.