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6 October 2025
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As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.
The Treasurer often touts a $207 billion improvement in Australia's financial position. A deeper look at the numbers reveals something less impressive, caused far more by commodity price surprises than policy.
The more the US needs capital and funding, the higher its currency goes. For Australia, this has become a significant problem as the US draws our capital to sustain its growth, putting pressure on our economy and the Aussie dollar.
The budget has cost-of-living support including energy relief, cheaper medicines, improved bulk billing access, and rental help. It also hints the Government won't change the way it calculates the new super tax.
Deputy Governor, Michelle Bullock, explained last week why the RBA bought $280 billion of bonds in its QE programme, but are we paying the price for this stimulus as rising inflation shocks central bankers?
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.
Questions on the stock market/economy disconnect, how to focus long term, technology's growing role, income in a low-rate world, Modern Monetary Theory and endless debt and the tooth fairy.
The impact of the pandemic on Australia's debt and deficit has forced the government into borrowing on a scale unimaginable at the start of 2020. What are the implications, and what is even more important?
In Budget 2020, Josh Frydenberg announced a performance comparison tool and fund stapling to save Australians $17.9 billion over 10 years. But too many moving parts make results highly cyclical.
Fixed income opportunities beyond term deposits and hybrids remain scarce for retail investors, but active bond funds can access other securities where value is still available. Here are examples.
The signs are that bond yields could stay low for a long time. This has important implications for future returns, but are we heading for the Big Bang, the Big Crunch or the Steady State?
With about $350 billion of new government spending announced to combat COVID-19, the obvious question is whether Australia can afford it, especially when national income will fall rapidly.
This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.
An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.
LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.
Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?
Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?
This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.