Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 540

It's time small and mid-caps play catchup

  •   Qiao Ma
  •   20 December 2023
  • 2
  •      
  •   

2023 had been a strong year for the share performances of large technology companies. The Magnificent Seven tech stocks - Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META) and Tesla (TSLA) drove the bulk of market returns for the S&P 500.

Looking forward to 2024, we see many opportunities for smaller, less discovered companies. At Munro, we believe that stock returns follow a company’s earnings trajectory over a long time horizon, and we search all over the world for sustainable earnings growth. We are now observing earnings growth re-acceleration in many high-quality small companies.

Fortuitously, these companies are also ‘on sale’ – in our opinion these companies are cheap both relative to their own historical average valuation and their larger peers.

Why Generative Artificial Intelligence will start to benefit smaller companies too

Generative AI is a revolutionary tool, and so far, it mostly benefits the largest companies. The simple reason is cost – it takes over US$1 billion to train a large language model, so very few companies can afford it. However, 2024 is when these models are finishing the initial ‘training’ phase and entering the ‘inferencing’ realm, which is another way of saying now the world will try to generate real use cases from these staggeringly intelligent models.

Few companies outside of the Magnificent Seven can enjoy their fruits during the model training phase. During inferencing, however, anyone can benefit from them. This is an Appstore moment for Gen AI, and we expect to see a sharp increase in the number of smart, entrepreneurial companies racing to incorporate AI more deeply into their products and services.

Pinterest

An example of the kind of company we like is ‘visual discovery engine’ Pinterest (PINS). It had been labelled as a ‘boring’ legacy company, but we have observed how they have reinvented themselves into something much more exciting.

They brought in a stellar management team from Google and transformed Pinterest from a website for browsing pretty pictures to an incredibly shoppable interface on both the mobile app and their webpage. We are seeing many positive early results – user growth has re-accelerated, revenues are growing strongly again, and margins have expanded substantially. The stock jumped 20% on the recent positive earnings announcement, and we think this is just the start.

Area of Interest - Consumer

Activewear and outdoor living sportswear brands are a subsector of broader consumption which is becoming more of a focus for us. In our all-cap funds, we like companies like Lululemon, and in the small and mid-cap funds, we currently own On Running (ONON).

On Running

On Running started up 13 years ago in the Swiss Alps by a retired athlete who wanted to create a running shoe with a new feel. It is a small, specialised brand pulling ahead of the pack. It is also not as impacted by the range of macro factors hitting the market as it has a very specific set of devoted target customers to which it can sell a differentiated product.

We were able to add the company to our portfolio at, what we consider to be, a very attractive entry point, potentially its lowest valuation since the initial public offering (IPO), because at the time, the share price was being impacted by overall market macro concerns around consumer stocks.

It was encouraging to see that reported earnings for the financial year far exceeded expectations. The outlook for On Running is also looking very positive with a slew of innovative products in the pipeline.

 

Qiao Ma is a Partner and Small-Mid-Cap Lead Portfolio Manager for Munro Partners, a specialist investment manager partner of GSFM Funds Management. GSFM is a sponsor of Firstlinks. The information contained herein reflects the views of Munro Partners as at the date of publishing and is provided for informational purposes only. It should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security.

For more articles and papers from GSFM and partners, click here.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

Reports of tech's death are greatly exaggerated

Global consumer and corporate resilience surprises everyone

Opening Gates: AI is as revolutionary as the internet

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

Retirement is a risky business for most people

While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The challenges with building a dividend portfolio

Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.

How much do you need to retire?

Australians are used to hearing dire warnings that they don't have enough saved for a comfortable retirement. Yet most people need to save a lot less than you might think — as long as they meet an important condition.

Latest Updates

Property

Affordability issues cap further house price rises

If the RBA starts cutting rates, many believe house prices will rebound strongly. Yet, the numbers on affordability suggest prices can’t rise much further without making housing impossibly expensive for most Australians.

Superannuation

How to shift into pension mode

How do you start accessing your super funds when you stop working, or maybe even before you stop working? This covers the basics, including how to switch your super accumulation account to an account-based pension.

Taxation

Reform overdue for family home CGT exemption

The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.

Investment strategies

The two key risks facing investors

In 2024, markets were buoyed by decent economic growth and US rate cuts, even as valuations became stretched. This year, more resilient portfolios may be needed to tackle risks from higher bond yields and market concentration.

Superannuation

Why systemic risks from ‘Big Super’ may be overplayed

What are the implications of ‘Big Super’ for our economy, financial markets and population? New research looks at the beneficial, detrimental and debatable aspects, spanning current impacts and potential future developments.

Property

What AI’s ‘Sputnik moment’ means for data centres

What we know about DeepSeek so far could be a mixed bag for data centre owners like Goodman Group. However, it's worth remembering that AI adoption isn't the only thing that matters to the industry's outlook.

Gold

Will 2025 be another banner year for gold?

Last year, gold surged 38% higher in Australian dollars, fuelled by investment demand and global risks. This year's outlook suggests potential for continued gold strength amid geopolitical uncertainties and currency vulnerabilities.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.