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8 March 2026
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Every investing cycle has its Ozempic moment, a narrative shock so compelling that the market briefly forgets that incumbents can and do adapt to transformative technology like AI.
It is almost impossible to identify a bubble in real time, and history shows they last far longer than we think, giving investors (perhaps misplaced) hope and short-sellers seemingly endless pain before the share price collapses.
Dealmaking appears to be on the mend, but investors could be well served to look through near-term trends toward six major themes that we think may drive private markets for years to come.
The US stock market sits in prolonged bubble territory, driven by AI enthusiasm. History suggests eventual mean reversion, reminding investors to weigh potential risks against current market optimism.
Tariff turmoil tested Asia, but AI leadership, policy easing and reform momentum are restoring investor confidence and strengthening the region’s outlook for 2026.
Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?
It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.
The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.
Search is changing fast. AI tools like ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini are reshaping how we find information, opening new opportunities for innovation, user engagement, and future revenue growth.
The renowned investor says there’s no shortage of speculative investors chasing AI riches and there could be a lot of money lost in the process. His biggest warning goes to workers and the jobs which will be replaced by AI.
OpenAI’s business model isn't sustainable in the long run. If markets catch on, the company could face higher borrowing costs, or worse, and that would have major spillover effects.
‘Hyperscalers’ including Google, Meta and Microsoft are fuelling an unprecedented surge in equity and debt issuance to bankroll massive AI-driven capital expenditure. History shows this isn't without risk.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
Most commentary on gold's recent record highs focus on it being the product of fear or speculative momentum. That's ignoring the deeper structural drivers at play.