When the Catholic church put a candidate up for sainthood the promoter of the faith was employed as a cannon lawyer to argue against the candidate. The post became known as the devil’s advocate and by taking a skeptical view he acted as a counterpoint to God’s advocate who made the case for canonization.
Today I will be playing the role of devil’s advocate. The Firstlinks’ community has largely taken a negative view on the budget proposals released last week. I share many of these concerns. But here are two things I think are positive in the budget.
Negative gearing
When I first moved to Australia 11 years ago I struggled to understand the purpose of negative gearing. I still can’t figure it out.
Nobody has been able to explain how negative gearing currently helps anyone other than the person getting the negative gearing. It may once have encouraged investment in residential housing but the need for encouragement are long in the past.
Given the grandfathering of properties that are currently negatively geared – which I think is a good idea – it may take some time to return some sanity to the housing market. But the benefits shouldn't be discounted.
I don’t think it is beneficial for the country to have so much wealth locked up in unproductive residential housing. I also think that many people who are reaching for homes may be wealthy on paper but can’t enjoy that wealth because of mortgage obligations.
This isn’t a magic bullet that is going to fix housing affordability. Ultimately it is a supply and demand issue and not enough housing is being built for a variety of reasons. I do think this is a step in the right direction.
NDIS reform
This week I attended a talk by Luci Ellis who is the head economist at Westpac. She made some great points about the significance of the NDIS reform proposals. As Luci pointed out execution is key but this is still a meaningful step in putting the country on better financial footing for the future. This shouldn’t be ignored.
I’ve gone a bit budget heavy in this edition of Firstlinks. Noel Whittaker is not a fan. You can read his opinion here.
Matt Nolan from the e61 institute thinks the capital gains tax changes are sensible. Read his thoughts here.
Rachael Rofe weighs in on the impact of the budget on estate planning. Australia may not levy formal death duties, but a growing web of tax measures is quietly shaping what wealth is passed between generations.
Tony Dillon adds his two cents on the budget with unappreciated implications of the government proposals.
I would also encourage everyone to read my colleague Sim’s article on the budget. A lot of people my age are telling young people what they should or shouldn’t want. It is great to hear someone’s thoughts from Gen Z.
I’ve also written an article about steps investors should consider in response to the budget.
Mark LaMonica
Also in this week's edition...
Michael Collins argues the Iran war carries the hallmarks of a historic policy misstep. From oil shocks to fractured alliances, the war could tip an already fragile global economy into crisis.
Copper has had a rough few weeks. David Tuckwell says investors shouldn't ignore the potential for future price increases as supply increasingly falls behind demand.
Larry Swedroe looks at some unappreciated reasons why shares fall.
This week's white paper is Yarra's analysis of the 2026-27 budget and it's likely impacts.
Curated by Mark LaMonica and Leisa Bell
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Weekend market update
From Shane Oliver, AMP
Global share markets mostly rose over the last week with ongoing hopes for a deal to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and US strong earnings data. This was despite worries about a more hawkish Fed and concerns about the inflationary consequences of the War. For the week US shares rose 0.9%, Eurozone shares rose 2.9% and Japanese shares rose 3.1%. Chinese shares were an exception though and they fell 0.3%. Helped along by the positive global lead the Australian share market also rose but only by 0.3%, with ongoing concerns about the impact of the Budgetary tax hikes on investing weighing. Strong gains in consumer and financial shares on the ASX were partly offset by sharp falls in utilities and industrials.
Metal prices rose over the last week but iron ore, gold and Bitcoin fell with $A also down but the $US little changed.
The past week saw more of the same in relation to the Iran War – more threats from Trump followed by soothing words about “very big discussions” with Iran. While a few ships got through, the Strait remains effectively closed maintaining a roughly 12 or 13% hit to global oil supplies. The upshot is that Trump wants to TACO but Iran is still not willing to provide the salsa with uranium and transit tolls through the Strait remaining sticking points. So, the standoff continues, posing bigger risks to the global and Australian economies the longer it goes on. This is leaving oil prices range bound, but with oil futures pricing in a fall on the grounds that a deal will be reached eventually. This remains our base case and Trump has been showing some signs of shifting focus to Greenland and Cuba lately!
Meanwhile, the ongoing impacts of the Strait blockage have added to concern that inflation and inflation expectations will rise further. Inflation data for the UK, Canada and Japan was better than expected, but the minutes from the Fed leaned hawkish with “many” Fed officials preferring to remove language indicating an easing bias and a “majority” indicating that a rate hike would be appropriate if inflation remained above target. This was reinforced by Fed Governor Waller, who is a Trump appointee, noting that “inflation is not heading in the right direction” and that he would “support removing the easing bias.” The US money market has now removed expectations for a rate cut this year and now sees a 95% probability of a hike. Meanwhile, some emerging country central banks are coming under pressure to raise rates with the Bank of Indonesia hiking by 0.5% in the last week. This is all combining to maintain upwards pressure on bond yields.
The RBA has “space” to be in wait and see mode but remains hawkish. The minutes from the last meeting noted that financial conditions are probably now a bit restrictive and that the three hikes this year give the RBA space to see how the War develops and impacts the economy. Soft jobs data for April – the last to be released before the RBA meeting next month – adds to the likelihood that the RBA will leave rates on hold in June. But the overall message from the RBA remains somewhat hawkish. This was highlighted in comments by RBA Assistant Governor Hunter who noted that a combination of factors meant that the boost to inflation from the oil supply shock could be “faster and more extensive” because of the starting point for the Australian economy of capacity constraints and already high inflation and with RBA research finding that price changes become more frequent when inflation is high which can lead to underestimating future inflation. The RBA is right to be concerned about a flow on to inflation expectations because five of the six years up until this year will have seen inflation above the 2-3% target, which risks increasing scepticism that the target will be met going forward which in turns risks a step up in wage demands and price rises. With the release of UK and Canadian inflation data in the past week it is clear that Australia sticks out like a sore thumb, both in headline inflation and in underlying inflation despite the latter yet to really show much impact from the War. As a result, the RBA has had to hike rates this year when other central banks have held and has to continue to remain relatively hawkish. Unfortunately, the Budget did not make the RBA’s job any easier. While we expect the RBA to leave rates on hold at its June meeting as it waits to assess things, we continue to expect another hike in August. The money market sees just a 2% chance of a hike next month, but continues to expect a hike by year end.
The changes to negative gearing, the capital gains tax discount and the taxation of family trusts have received a lot attention, but a disappointing aspect of the Budget was that the changes were not assessed in the context of the overall income tax system. Even with access to these concessions the Australian income tax system was highly progressive with the top 10% of income earners paying 44% of income tax revenue being raised by Canberra and the top 20% accounting for 60%. The tax system should be progressive because the more you earn the more you should be able to contribute as a share of your income. But there is a danger in pushing it too far in that it risks creating a disincentive to work, form new businesses and expand to employ more people. And now with the concessions wound back it will become even more progressive adding to these disincentives risking weaker productivity growth and living standards. This risk is particularly high for startups and small businesses and even if they are excluded from the CGT change the risk could remain in relation to less capital being available for growth stocks on the share market.
In short, the curtailment of the tax concessions should have been accompanied by income tax cuts or at the very least a commitment to indexing the tax scales to inflation. This is particularly the case with the top tax rate being above that in many other comparable countries and kicking in at a relatively low multiple of average wages. If the top tax threshold had been indexed to inflation since it was last significantly raised in 2008-09 it would now be $280,000 and not $190,000, which means far more taxpayers today are now paying the top rate than was originally intended for them.
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