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8 August 2025
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Morningstar’s asset class 'gameboard' for 2015 is an excellent visual summary of how each asset class has performed over the last 20 years, and shows that no single asset class consistently outperforms the others. It also gives no hint into how the previous year's winners or losers will perform in the following year as the pattern appears random.
Click on the gameboard for an enlarged version. In case the fine print is a little too fine, here are the underlying data sources:
My own method of portfolio construction for clients with a lump sum is to start with 100% spread in Australian Fixed Interest (40%) and cash (60%) and then move into a mix of the rest using 10% each year (spread over mainly Oz and Int'l shares - most Australians have enough property) for three years, until we reach 30% "invested" position. Then I allow my client to choose whether they go further invested to risk over the next 2-4 years, using 5% to 10% each year. That allows dollar cost averaging; it allows the client to learn as they go; it allows NO LOSSES of the corpus over the first few years and after that it will be unlikely to ever slip below the starting point and it allows sufficient income to be generated for the client settle into retirement with no nasty surprises. If you look at the chart you'll see why my method works and is very popular, because returns are/have been pretty stable over any period, using this method. We NEVER encourage ANYONE to go more than 50% into risk (i.e. non cash and short-dated fixed interest) if they are near retirement. If they do so, it's on their own head. We also NEVER recommend margin lending, despite upgrading our AFSL so that we can. We figure that if we weren't able to advise on Margin Lending we wouldn't be able to (credibly) advise AGAINST it. The logic is that if you need to borrow to invest you can't afford to and if you don't you'd use your own property as collateral for any loan for investment purposes... All simple, practical (un)common sense. Peter Thornhill's argument holds some water but is unhelpful for someone beginning with a substantial lump sum. It's too bound up in the common equity-driven thinking that may have been best over the past few decades but which could prove a little less successful over the next two decades as the Baby Boomers sell down their inflated assets...
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Over decades, relatively few companies generate all the stockmarket's outperformance. Is this an argument for passive investing or does it prove active investing is rewarded? Bessembinder lets you decide.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.
The Labor government is talking up tax reform to lift Australia’s ailing economic growth. Before any changes are made, it’s important to know who pays tax, who owns assets, and how much people have in their super for retirement.
With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains.
There are many ways to invest in stocks, but some strategies are more effective than others. Here are nine tried and tested investment approaches - choosing one of these can improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.
China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?
Markets have weathered geopolitical turmoil, hitting near record highs. Investors face tough decisions on valuations, asset concentration, and strategic portfolio rebalancing for risk control and future returns.
This goes through the different options including shares, property and business ownership and declares a winner, as well as outlining the mindset needed to earn enough to never have to work again.
After a stellar 2025 to date for equities, warning signs - from speculative froth to stretched valuations - suggest the market’s calm may be masking deeper fragilities. Strategic rebalancing feels increasingly timely.
Everyone has a theory as to why housing in Australia is so expensive. There are a lot of different factors at play, from skewed migration patterns to banking trends and housing's status as a national obsession.
Each generation believes its economic challenges were uniquely tough - but what does the data say? A closer look reveals a more nuanced, complex story behind the generational hardship debate.
Blackberry clung on to the superiority of keyboards at the beginning of the touchscreen era and paid the ultimate price. Could the rise of agentic AI and a new generation of hardware do something similar to Apple?
The bond market is quietly regaining strength. As rate cuts loom and economic growth moderates, high-quality credit and global fixed income present renewed opportunities for investors seeking income and stability.
Companies trading at over 10x revenue now account for over 20% of the MSCI World index, levels not seen since the dotcom bubble. Can these shares create lasting value, or are they destined to unravel?