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19 January 2026
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Morningstar’s asset class 'gameboard' for 2015 is an excellent visual summary of how each asset class has performed over the last 20 years, and shows that no single asset class consistently outperforms the others. It also gives no hint into how the previous year's winners or losers will perform in the following year as the pattern appears random.
Click on the gameboard for an enlarged version. In case the fine print is a little too fine, here are the underlying data sources:
My own method of portfolio construction for clients with a lump sum is to start with 100% spread in Australian Fixed Interest (40%) and cash (60%) and then move into a mix of the rest using 10% each year (spread over mainly Oz and Int'l shares - most Australians have enough property) for three years, until we reach 30% "invested" position. Then I allow my client to choose whether they go further invested to risk over the next 2-4 years, using 5% to 10% each year. That allows dollar cost averaging; it allows the client to learn as they go; it allows NO LOSSES of the corpus over the first few years and after that it will be unlikely to ever slip below the starting point and it allows sufficient income to be generated for the client settle into retirement with no nasty surprises. If you look at the chart you'll see why my method works and is very popular, because returns are/have been pretty stable over any period, using this method. We NEVER encourage ANYONE to go more than 50% into risk (i.e. non cash and short-dated fixed interest) if they are near retirement. If they do so, it's on their own head. We also NEVER recommend margin lending, despite upgrading our AFSL so that we can. We figure that if we weren't able to advise on Margin Lending we wouldn't be able to (credibly) advise AGAINST it. The logic is that if you need to borrow to invest you can't afford to and if you don't you'd use your own property as collateral for any loan for investment purposes... All simple, practical (un)common sense. Peter Thornhill's argument holds some water but is unhelpful for someone beginning with a substantial lump sum. It's too bound up in the common equity-driven thinking that may have been best over the past few decades but which could prove a little less successful over the next two decades as the Baby Boomers sell down their inflated assets...
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Over decades, relatively few companies generate all the stockmarket's outperformance. Is this an argument for passive investing or does it prove active investing is rewarded? Bessembinder lets you decide.
Two years ago, I wrote an article suggesting that the odds favoured ASX shares easily outperforming residential property over the next decade. Here’s an update on where things stand today.
The superannuation system has succeeded brilliantly at what it was designed to do: accumulate wealth during working lives. The next challenge is meeting members’ diverse needs in retirement.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
I am a professional real estate investor who hears a lot of opinions rather than facts from so-called experts on the topic of property. Here are the largest myths when it comes to Australia’s biggest asset class.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.
Lump sum investing usually wins, but it can hurt if markets fall. Using 50 years of Australian data, we reveal when staging your entry protects you, and when it drags on returns.
It has been years since the US stock market has been so focused on a single driving theme, and AI is unquestionably that theme. This explores what it means for US and global markets in 2026.
The US has elevated energy to a national security priority, tying cheap, reliable power to economic strength, AI leadership, and sovereignty. This analyses the new framework and its implications for Australia.
Most people know Maduro was a dictator and Venezuela has oil. Few grasp the depth of suffering or the country’s democratic history - essential context as the US ousts Maduro and charts Venezuela’s future.