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Tuesday, 25 January 2022
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Morningstar’s asset class 'gameboard' for 2015 is an excellent visual summary of how each asset class has performed over the last 20 years, and shows that no single asset class consistently outperforms the others. It also gives no hint into how the previous year's winners or losers will perform in the following year as the pattern appears random.
Click on the gameboard for an enlarged version. In case the fine print is a little too fine, here are the underlying data sources:
My own method of portfolio construction for clients with a lump sum is to start with 100% spread in Australian Fixed Interest (40%) and cash (60%) and then move into a mix of the rest using 10% each year (spread over mainly Oz and Int'l shares - most Australians have enough property) for three years, until we reach 30% "invested" position. Then I allow my client to choose whether they go further invested to risk over the next 2-4 years, using 5% to 10% each year. That allows dollar cost averaging; it allows the client to learn as they go; it allows NO LOSSES of the corpus over the first few years and after that it will be unlikely to ever slip below the starting point and it allows sufficient income to be generated for the client settle into retirement with no nasty surprises. If you look at the chart you'll see why my method works and is very popular, because returns are/have been pretty stable over any period, using this method. We NEVER encourage ANYONE to go more than 50% into risk (i.e. non cash and short-dated fixed interest) if they are near retirement. If they do so, it's on their own head. We also NEVER recommend margin lending, despite upgrading our AFSL so that we can. We figure that if we weren't able to advise on Margin Lending we wouldn't be able to (credibly) advise AGAINST it. The logic is that if you need to borrow to invest you can't afford to and if you don't you'd use your own property as collateral for any loan for investment purposes... All simple, practical (un)common sense. Peter Thornhill's argument holds some water but is unhelpful for someone beginning with a substantial lump sum. It's too bound up in the common equity-driven thinking that may have been best over the past few decades but which could prove a little less successful over the next two decades as the Baby Boomers sell down their inflated assets...
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
If an investor had been living on the moon or under a rock for a year and returned on 30 June 2019, on seeing their portfolio, they would have thought it was a delightful year full of good news.
There is no single asset class that consistently outperforms all others year on year but over the long term (>10 years), actively managed asset classes have performed better, and all asset classes have outperformed inflation.
Most people entering retirement do not see a financial adviser, mainly due to cost. It's a major problem because there are small mistakes a retiree can make which are expensive and avoidable if a few tips were known.
Eligibility for the Commonwealth Seniors Health Card has no asset test and a relatively high income test. It's worth checking eligibility and the benefits of qualifying to save on the cost of medications.
The focus is on Magellan for its investment performance and departure of the CEO, but Douglass says the pandemic, inflation, rising rates and Middle East tensions have not played out. Vindication is always long term.
This is our annual checklist of what retirees need to be aware of in 2022. It is a long list of 25 items and not everything will apply to your situation. Run your eye over the benefits and entitlements.
The Warren Buffett/Charlie Munger partnership is the stuff of legends, but even Charlie admits it is coming to an end ("I'm nearly dead"). He is one of the few people in investing prepared to say what he thinks.
Depending on personal circumstances, it may be time to rethink the bias to paying down housing debt over wealth accumulation in super. Do the sums and ask these four questions to plan for your future.
There are thousands of different indexes, and they are not all diversified and broadly-based. Watch for concentration risk in sectors and companies, and know the underlying assets in case liquidity is needed.
It is easy to feel like an investing genius over the last 10 years, with most asset classes making wonderful gains. But if there's a setback, companies like Reece, ARB, Cochlear, REA Group and CSL will recover best.
In the 11th year of a bull market, near the end of the cycle, some type of correction is likely. Underneath is solid, healthy and underpinned by strong earnings growth, but there's less room for mistakes.
In 2021, the gold price failed to sustain its strong rise since 2018, although it recovered after early losses. But where does gold sit in a world of inflation, rising rates and a competitor like Bitcoin?
In a sentence or two, global experts across many fields are asked to summarise the biggest surprise of 2021, and enduring challenges into 2022. It's a short and sweet view of the changes we are all facing.
In 2021, sharemarket gains supported record levels of capital raisings and IPOs in Australia. The range of deals listed here shows the maturity of the local market in providing equity capital.
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.