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6 October 2025

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Edition: 357

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 357

  • 13 May 2020

There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.

Howard Marks on uncertainty, forecasting and doubt

Global markets are more uncertain today than at any other time in our lives. Nobody knows the future but we must make decisions about it. A solid dose of intellectual humility is essential.

Capital retention will shake dividends in 2020

Sixty per cent of the ASX200 total return is due to dividends, and for Financials, it rises to more than 70%. Moves to limit dividends could both reduce investor incomes and affect valuations.

Don't invest just for yield: the smarter way to generate income

Investors often overlook the capital risk in high-yielding stocks. It's better to ensure capital grows and investors can sell a portion each year to make up for the shortfall in income from dividends.

How do you pick the right global stocks during Covid-19?

The varying degrees of market performance are due to the mix of sectors and stocks in each index. The best plan of attack is to find quality companies in essential services at favourable prices.

It's like opening your best champagne at 5am

There are heavy clouds on the horizon in the near and medium term, yet risk markets have separated themselves from the economics. Liquidity will not solve the problems of bankrupt companies.

How retail investors are responding to a bear market

The traditional notion that retail investors buy high and sell low has not been supported by activity at this broker, who has seen investors looking for bargains after the Covid-19 sell-off.

Bank reporting season scorecard May 2020

Uncertainty was the key theme in recent results, but how did they score on loan provisions, capital resources, margins and most importantly, dividends. There's a lot of guesswork going on in banks.

Lessons in oil ETFs, futures and negative prices

Anyone considering investing in oil must understand it is a commodity with supply and demand features, and the relationship between spot and futures markets is critical to how an oil ETF is managed.

Short version of future returns article: dreamin' on

A summary of an important message on the vibe of future returns. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Planning needs a more realistic view.

Bigger companies have more females on their boards

Female representation on boards is increasing but still low, and they command fewer positions in small companies. Worse, of the 34 CEOs appointed to boards in the last year, only three were women.  

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Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Are LICs licked?

LICs are continuing to struggle with large discounts and frustrated investors are wondering whether it’s worth holding onto them. This explains why the next 6-12 months will be make or break for many LICs.

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Retirement income expectations hit new highs

Younger Australians think they’ll need $100k a year in retirement - nearly double what current retirees spend. Expectations are rising fast, but are they realistic or just another case of lifestyle inflation?

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 627 with weekend update

This week, I got the news that my mother has dementia. It came shortly after my father received the same diagnosis. This is a meditation on getting old and my regrets in not getting my parents’ affairs in order sooner.

  • 4 September 2025

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