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13 July 2025

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Edition: 357

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 357

  • 13 May 2020

There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.

Howard Marks on uncertainty, forecasting and doubt

Global markets are more uncertain today than at any other time in our lives. Nobody knows the future but we must make decisions about it. A solid dose of intellectual humility is essential.

Capital retention will shake dividends in 2020

Sixty per cent of the ASX200 total return is due to dividends, and for Financials, it rises to more than 70%. Moves to limit dividends could both reduce investor incomes and affect valuations.

Don't invest just for yield: the smarter way to generate income

Investors often overlook the capital risk in high-yielding stocks. It's better to ensure capital grows and investors can sell a portion each year to make up for the shortfall in income from dividends.

How do you pick the right global stocks during Covid-19?

The varying degrees of market performance are due to the mix of sectors and stocks in each index. The best plan of attack is to find quality companies in essential services at favourable prices.

It's like opening your best champagne at 5am

There are heavy clouds on the horizon in the near and medium term, yet risk markets have separated themselves from the economics. Liquidity will not solve the problems of bankrupt companies.

How retail investors are responding to a bear market

The traditional notion that retail investors buy high and sell low has not been supported by activity at this broker, who has seen investors looking for bargains after the Covid-19 sell-off.

Bank reporting season scorecard May 2020

Uncertainty was the key theme in recent results, but how did they score on loan provisions, capital resources, margins and most importantly, dividends. There's a lot of guesswork going on in banks.

Lessons in oil ETFs, futures and negative prices

Anyone considering investing in oil must understand it is a commodity with supply and demand features, and the relationship between spot and futures markets is critical to how an oil ETF is managed.

Short version of future returns article: dreamin' on

A summary of an important message on the vibe of future returns. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Planning needs a more realistic view.

Bigger companies have more females on their boards

Female representation on boards is increasing but still low, and they command fewer positions in small companies. Worse, of the 34 CEOs appointed to boards in the last year, only three were women.  

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Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

7 examples of how the new super tax will be calculated

You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.

The revolt against Baby Boomer wealth

The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.

Meg on SMSFs: Withdrawing assets ahead of the $3m super tax

The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.

Are franking credits hurting Australia’s economy?

Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

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