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Edition: 408

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 408 with weekend updates

  • 20 May 2021

There are no better examples of Australia's unexpected recovery from the pandemic than the fortunes of our major banks and the changing forecasts of our leading economists. In May 2020, NAB reduced its dividend and undertook a Share Purchase Plan at $14.15 to build up its capital, and now the bank is contemplating a buyback at over $25. Looks like sell low buy high. 

Whoyagonnacall? Five more risks buying off-the-plan

Part 2. All new apartment buildings have defects, and developers and builders will not volunteer to spend time and money on fixes unless someone fights them. There's no 'defect buster' to call.

The next big thing: global markets and the emerging consumer

A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.

Noel's share winners and loser plus budget reality check

Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.

Six lessons for investors in a crisis

The markets delivered the full range of experiences in the past year with the fastest fall and the sharpest recovery on record. What quick investing lessons apply, especially when a crisis hits?

Australia's baby boom filling some of the immigration losses

One silver lining from changing COVID-19 societal behaviours is an unexpected pickup in Australia’s natural population growth rate, with early-stage pregnancy ultrasounds pointing to a baby boom ahead.

Bank reporting season scorecard May 2021

It's an incredible turnaround. One bank reported 121,000 home loans in deferral in 2020 but only 2,000 remain in hardship a year later. Profits have recovered, loan losses are tiny ... but which are the best banks?

Will the drought break for value stocks continue?

The shift in dynamics from growth to value can be seen in the rotation of tech and communications names out of the top 20 performers to be replaced by value-style industrials, energy and financials. Will it continue?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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