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28 February 2026
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Today’s consumers are walking contradictions - craving simplicity in an age of abundance, privacy in a public world. These tensions tell a bigger story about what people truly value and why.
Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.
This year has been quite shocking for investors who are probably wondering when the turbulence will end. Given that, we take a step back and look at 5 charts that provide some context on the current environment.
When the pandemic hit, consumers switched their buying to goods as they could not get out to consume services. Now, habits are normalising, with implications for travel, hotels, sporting goods and 'experiences'.
A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.
A high level of spending capacity is left in consumers which will support consumer-related stocks for a longer period than is factored into current share prices. Savers have lots of money sitting in the bank.
The Australian market overall finished flat for calendar 2020, but the pandemic delivered big wins and losses. The companies, sectors and companies you invested in delivered vastly different results.
The growth in wealth and aspirations of middle-class Chinese may become a 'consumer of last resort' for the world economy, but to earn that status, China must avoid a ‘trap’ among other challenges.
Even when the virus is finally contained, the business landscape will look very different. A critical issue is the ability of consumers to find product substitutes. Many people like what they find.
Too many investors are lumping all companies together in the current crisis, but some businesses will emerge in good shape with recovering revenues, while others are disadvantaged permanently.
Food and beverage producers are under pressure to reduce the harmful impact of their products, and investors can encourage the trend by investing in companies or funds that recognise society's needs.
In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.