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Credit Spreads

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Levered credit: A late cycle ingredient for drawdown pain

As credit spreads normalised through 2025, yield‑hungry investors have turned to leverage for high returns, uncomfortably echoing pre‑GFC behaviours. Investors need to be careful to understand the true risk‑return trade‑off.

Five possible market scenarios guide your asset allocation

In volatile markets, asset allocation should consider scenarios based on differing likelihoods. There are always a number of low probability, extreme outcomes so don't assume the central case is the only possibility.

The forgotten asset class set to outperform in 2022

Australian investors are searching for investments that can benefit from evolving market conditions. With credit spreads at attractive levels, now might be the opportune time to have exposure to hybrids and credit.

Bond basics and four messages in the search for yield

Bonds have been strong performers over many decades and always play a role in defensively-positioned portfolios. There are some basic principles investors should understand such as the types of yield.

Opportunities across the capital structure

While property and equity markets remain expensive by historical standards, yields achievable relative to risk remain strong in the hybrid market, notwithstanding recent upticks in price.

The outlook for Australian banks

Australian banks appear cheap and their shares trade below broker targets. But three analysts offer deeper explanations that suggest stronger credit standards will affect house prices and credit growth.

Turbulence creates opportunities for bonds and hybrids

Factors relating to technical adjustments, timing of bank reporting and offshore influences have created wider spreads on bonds and hybrids which should mean revert in time.

Watch the low returns on 'high yield' debt

Investors seeking yield need to watch the margin contraction on so-called 'high yield' debt, especially since the protective covenants are weaker than in the past.

What credit spreads reveal about share markets

Understanding how credit spreads relate to share prices and what they can reveal about where we are in the stock market cycle can be useful information for the long-term investor.

Global credit valuations: are we there yet?

The market has seen a major widening of credit spreads as investors demand greater compensation for liquidity risk. Has the market reached the point where it offers value?

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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