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28 February 2026
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The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.
As more Australians tilt their investments to global equities, they often overlook the exchange rate risk and fees. The move from US57 cents to US73 cents in six months shows the unhedged impact.
Investors are looking overseas for investments more than ever, but most do not hold some of their cash in US$. It gives exposure to the world's leading economy, perhaps at a higher rate.
Many people put months of effort into planning a foreign trip, only to leave FX transactions to the last minute, including the worst sin of changing currency at the airport. There are better ways.
Australian retail customers typically still pay a hefty fee on FX transactions at the airport or through the banks. Fintech solutions are more competitive, and global banks are also offering multi-currency accounts.
Let's celebrate the positive effects of a floating exchange rate and the way it adjusts to make economic policy more effective. With some exceptions, a floating currency acts as a shock absorber to cushion volatility.
The Reserve Bank has three early warning signals for financial instability in a sector: rapid growth; a target for spruikers; and a potential investor protection issue. SMSFs tick every box.
* ASIC has warned retail investors about the dangers of trading FX, including listing the risks.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.