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Saturday, 18 September 2021
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The inflation genie is still in the bottle. While wage growth remains low and the US Fed maintains current settings, we should expect the RBA's accommodatory approach to continue.
The refusal of both sides of politics not only to adopt ‘microeconomic reform’ but in some cases reverse reforms, looms as a bigger driver of unemployment than any failure to fine-tune macro or monetary policy.
Key factors to watch in 2021 are coronavirus cases and deaths, global business conditions, unemployment, inflation, bond yields and the gap between earnings yields and the US dollar. Where are we now?
The second wave of COVID-19 sweeping Victoria and the resulting lockdown have taken a huge toll on the state's economy and its population. Was the government's reaction heavy-handed or necessary?
There is an infinite variety of financial charts an investor can watch, with many spurious claims about factors and causality. But here are six common charts that are at historical extremes.
Less than half of today's workforce has experienced a proper recession, but in the absence of serious reform and vision, Australia may break its 25 years of economic growth.
The ‘economics of retirement outcomes’ is a concept that explores how economic developments can affect retirement outcomes. The current soft labour market is one of those developments.
Unemployment and inflation seem to be heading in different directions in Australia and the United States, but the outcomes for interest rates and equity markets might be the same.
The US Treasury defaulted three times on its treasury bills in 1979, but the problem is primarily one of politics, not insolvency. Another default may be enough of a shock to get the parties together to work on real solutions.
Who knew? With some surprise results, the Government is on unexpected firm ground in asking people to draw on all their assets in retirement, although the comments show what feisty and informed readers we have.
It's a remarkable statistic. In any year since 1875, if you had invested in the Australian stock index, turned away and come back eight years later, your average return would be 120% with no negative periods.
Never stand between Australian households and an uncapped government programme with $3 billion in ‘free money’ to build or renovate their homes. But excess supply is coming with an absence of net migration.
Picking macro trends is difficult. What may seem logical and compelling one minute may completely change a few months later. There are better rewards from focussing on identifying the best companies at good prices.
The RBA Governor says rising house prices are due to "the design of our taxation and social security systems". The OECD says "the prolonged boom in house prices has inflated the wealth of many pensioners without impacting their pension eligibility." What's your view?
Some high-quality companies have emerged even stronger since the onset of COVID and are well placed for outperformance. We call these the ‘COVID Opportunists’ as they are now dominating their specific sectors.