Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 406

Are we underestimating the peak of the V-shaped recovery?

By now most investors are tiring of their email in boxes filling with economists and strategists talking about reflation (that is, a recovery in spending and economic growth), how much more optimistic they are relative to consensus, and for how much longer the reflation trade will persist.

There were very few people talking about a strong V-shaped recovery this time last year. Indeed, a scan of the forecasts of leading sell-side economists in April 2020 shows consensus forecasts of 3% for the CY21 for Australia and 3.8% for the USA.

A switch to stronger growth forecasts

Indeed, peak pessimism was not reached until September 2020, when economic growth downgrades ceased and modest upgrades commenced. Currently, consensus for CY21 has risen to 5.7% in the USA and 4.4% for Australia.

In contrast, our forecasts for the US in 2021 – which we published in mid-April 2020 – was 6.5% (represented by the cross in Chart 1). For Australia (Chart 2) we were even more optimistic, forecasting 7.0% economic growth. As we moved through 2020, it was clear the expected contraction in economic growth in 2020 was less than expected and we reduced our forecast rebound in Australia’s economic growth in 2021 to a still sizeable 6.0%.

Much of our more upbeat analysis was based on:

  1. the nature of the shock being more akin to a natural disaster
  2. the quantum of the fiscal packages
  3. excess credit growth
  4. the outlook for vaccine development
  5. the prospect of pent up demand.

One year on, the clambering to upgrade growth estimates has only intensified. Over the past two months, consensus forecasts for Australian economic growth in 2021 have been upgraded a further 0.7%. In the USA the revision over the past two months is a remarkable 1.6%.

For Australia. we remain 1.5% above the consensus forecast and around 1% above the most optimistic other forecaster. What supports our optimism?

1. Australia’s data consistently beats economic forecasters

Charts 3 and 4 show our calculation of economic data surprises for economic activity and inflation relative to consensus forecasts (US vs Australia). A positive reading represents economic data beating consensus expectations weighted by data importance and time decay.

Clearly, Australia’s economic activity data is not only continuing to beat increasingly upbeat economic forecasts, the positive data surprises are larger in Australia.

2. Real economic growth is expanding at pace

Our 'nowcasting' techniques (Chart 5) for gauging in real-time how fast the economy is expanding already suggest that real economic growth was expanding at 4% yoy by the end of 1Q2021. 

Note: Our nowcasting methodology is to estimate real time economic growth via both dynamic factor models and principal component models for each of the major economies to provide an alternative underlying picture of economic growth to the often noisier official GDP data.

3. Treasury’s projections have been comfortably exceeded

Much stronger economic growth, much lower unemployment and much stronger commodity prices have combined to already deliver a $23 billion better fiscal outcome relative to Treasury’s December projections and closer to a $50 billion saving over the next four years.

The question for Q2 is how much more of an 'economic surprise' dividend will likely flow through the Budget and what will the Government do with it?

We believe the Treasury’s growth figures are 0.5% too low for 2020-21 and 1.25% too low for 2021-22. The unemployment rate is likely too high by as much as 2%. And an iron ore assumption of $55/tonne embedded in the Budget is one-third of the current iron ore price. Clearly there are further major revenue upgrades to come.

Our take is that the May Budget will be used mainly to evidence the vastly better Budget and economic outcomes that have been achieved. We expect the true election Budget will come in late 2021 (i.e. mid-year Budget), with more strategic spending and tax changes announced to setup a May 2022 Election. The combination of the Coalition’s political challenges and the Budget’s economic windfalls will likely spark additional fiscal spending later in 2021, sufficient to bolster economic growth expectations.

Momentum to continue over 2021

Mid-2021 will likely mark the peak of global economic data surprises and the final phase of economic growth upgrades. Nevertheless, we believe there is more oxygen in Australia’s economic recovery and that consensus has long been too slow to recognise the domestic economy’s capacity to expand at close to 6% through 2021. 

While this will set off expectations of a higher cash rate ahead of the RBA’s 2024 guidance, the RBA can be expected to attempt to allay those fears by making the case that inflation expectations and wage growth remains too low to be consistent with their inflation objective. Nevertheless, the likely RBA growth upgrades will almost certainly end the prospect of the RBA rolling the 3-year bond beyond the April 2024 target. Together with the end of the Term Funding Facility in mid-2021 the reality is that a very modest tightening cycle is already commencing.

 

Tim Toohey is Head of Macro and Strategy at Yarra Capital Management. To the extent that this article discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should be construed as general advice only. References to ‘consensus’ throughout relate to Bloomberg consensus unless otherwise stated.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

The coiled spring: markets are primed for the year ahead

2025: Another bullish year ahead for equities?

What to do about the growing chorus of market correction warnings?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Raising the GST to 15%

Treasurer Jim Chalmers aims to tackle tax reform but faces challenges. Previous reviews struggled due to political sensitivities, highlighting the need for comprehensive and politically feasible change.

Here's what should replace the $3 million super tax

With Div. 296 looming, is there a smarter way to tax superannuation? This proposes a fairer, income-linked alternative that respects compounding, ensures predictability, and avoids taxing unrealised capital gains. 

100 Aussies: seven charts on who earns, pays, and owns

The Labor government is talking up tax reform to lift Australia’s ailing economic growth. Before any changes are made, it’s important to know who pays tax, who owns assets, and how much people have in their super for retirement.

The rubbery numbers behind super tax concessions

In selling the super tax, Labor has repeated Treasury claims of there being $50 billion in super tax concessions annually, mostly flowing to high-income earners. This figure is vastly overstated.

9 winning investment strategies

There are many ways to invest in stocks, but some strategies are more effective than others. Here are nine tried and tested investment approaches - choosing one of these can improve your chances of reaching your financial goals.

With markets near record highs, here's what you should do with your portfolio

Markets have weathered geopolitical turmoil, hitting near record highs. Investors face tough decisions on valuations, asset concentration, and strategic portfolio rebalancing for risk control and future returns.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

Finding income in an income-starved world

With term deposit rates falling, bonds holding up but with risks attached, and stocks yielding comparatively paltry sums, finding decent income is becoming harder. Here’s a guide to the best places to hunt for yield.

Economy

Fearful politicians put finances at risk

A tearful Treasury chief, a backbench rebellion, and crashing bonds. What just happened in the UK and why could Australia’s NDIS be headed for the same brutal fiscal reality?

Shares

Investing at market peaks: The surprising truth

Many investors are hesitant to buy into a market that feels like it’s already climbed too far, too fast. But what does nearly a century of market history suggest about investing at peaks?

Shares

Chinese steel - building a Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes

China's steel production, equivalent to building one Sydney Harbour Bridge every 10 minutes, has driven Australia's economic growth. With China's slowdown, what does this mean for Australia's economy and investments?

Investment strategies

Will stablecoins change the way we pay for things?

Stablecoins have been hyped as a gamechanger for the payments industry. But while they could find success in certain niches, a broader upheaval of Visa and Mastercard's payments dominance looks unlikely.

Infrastructure

An investing theme you can bet on for the next 30 years

Investors view infrastructure as a defensive asset class rather than one with compelling growth prospects. These five tailwinds for demand over the coming decades suggest that such a stance could be mistaken.

Investment strategies

A letter to my younger self: investing through today's chaos

We are trading through one of history's most confounding market environments. One day, financial headlines warn of doomsday scenarios. The next, they celebrate a new golden age. How can investors keep a clear head?

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.