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8 May 2026
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It's not low or high commodities prices, or even rising or falling prices, that matter for the share market. A pattern relating to changes in the rate of change can be observed as far back as the 1950s as a useful forecasting tool.
Australia's reliance on raw material exports combined with imports of manufactured goods is ensuring that the Australian dollar remains closely pegged to commodities prices.
The lending patterns of households and businesses, when compared against GDP and disposable income, can provide useful insights into where the economy is headed.
Despite the recent falls, the performance of Chinese shares over the last 12 months is still above Japan, Europe, the US and Australia. But the Chinese market is a casino, and currency movements are more important.
Long term investors look forward to market-wide falls because good companies are sold off along with the rest. It gives a chance to buy into companies that were previously considered too expensive.
Many people have been quoting the Australian shares return for FY2015 as 2.4%, but that is only the price index. The accumulation index is up a healthy 7.1%. All asset classes generated returns well above inflation and cash rates.
Global equity markets have grown more correlated due to globalization, but this trend may reverse which boosts the benefits of cross-country diversification.
Research highlights the significant impact of excluding housing income from income inequality analysis in Australia, arguing for the inclusion of imputed rent and capital gains to provide a more accurate picture.
The lithium rally mirrors the early-2010s tech stock surge, with demand set to double by 2030. Supply has been slow to respond, creating a market deficit for future tech like humanoid robotics and solid-state batteries.
Increasing our official cash rate contrasts with almost every other developed country in the world. Canada, UK, Europe, and USA, so far, have not reversed recent cuts while their inflation issues appear to be contained.
Around the world, democracy as a system of government is backsliding. After more than 50 years of liberal democracy in ascendancy, democratic progress plateaued around the turn of the century and is now going backwards.
Financial commentators await the federal budget with focus on debt and deficit. 'Off-budget' accounting alters the fiscal picture with unseen programs.
Ashley Owen's abridged monthly snapshot uncovers what is front of mind for investors around the world and his view on the likely outcome of the stand-off in the Middle East.