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David Bell

Managing for real returns

There is a significant leadership opportunity for super funds to manage real return risk, where the inflation risk represents a potential erosion of retirement outcomes.

Historical real return outcomes based on current default portfolios

The biggest threat to a retirement portfolio is loss of value in real terms. The superannuation industry should focus on real returns and real volatility before inflation strikes again.

The utmost importance of real returns - but does the industry care?

Real returns, which are simply the return relative to inflation, measure the growth in purchasing power of a portfolio of assets. So why does almost everyone use nominal returns and mislead investors?

How much variability exists in retirement outcomes?

Most financial plans focus on the amount of money required for a comfortable retirement, but knowing the variability of that outcome might change your mind on how much is enough.

Putting off that retirement speech

The ideal outcome approaching retirement is to have the ability to extend a working career as a conscious choice, or if financially and personally appropriate, make the farewell speech.

Are lifecycle funds appropriate for MySuper products?

The Stronger Super reforms have significantly raised the profile of lifecycle funds by legitimising their use as a single investment strategy for MySuper products. But are lifecycle funds any better than normal balanced funds?

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Economy

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Superannuation

No, Division 296 does not tax franking credits twice

Claims that Division 296 double-taxes franking credits misunderstand imputation: franking credits are SMSF income, not company tax, and ensure earnings are taxed once at the correct rate.

Investment strategies

Who will get left holding the banks?

For the first time in decades, the Big 4 banks have real competition in home loans. Macquarie is quickly gain market share, which threatens both the earnings and dividends of the major banks in the years ahead.

Investment strategies

AI economic scenarios: revolutionary growth, or recessionary bubble?

Investor focus is turning increasingly to AI-related risks: is it a bubble about to burst, tipping the US into recession? Or is it the onset of a third industrial revolution? And what would either scenario mean for markets?

Investment strategies

The long-term case for compounders

Cyclical stocks surge in upswings but falter in downturns. Compounders - reliable, scalable, resilient businesses - offer smoother, superior returns over the full investment cycle for patient investors.

Property

AREITs are not as passive as you may think

A-REITs are often viewed as passive rental vehicles, but today’s index tells a different story. Development and funds management now dominate earnings, materially increasing volatility and risk for the sector.

Australia’s quiet dairy boom — and the investment opportunity

Dairy farming offers real asset exposure, steady income and long-term growth, yet remains overlooked by investors seeking diversification beyond traditional asset classes.

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