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Don Stammer

Why we’re talking about 'secular stagnation'

Secular stagnation can result from a sustained lack of demand or low growth in productivity, and can create low or negative investment returns. Could this happen in Australia?

Investors need to allow for future cycles

Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.

Liquidity is abundant despite QE wind down

Despite the Federal Reserve's tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.

Happy 30th, $A float best policy change in post-war era

Let's celebrate the positive effects of a floating exchange rate and the way it adjusts to make economic policy more effective. With some exceptions, a floating currency acts as a shock absorber to cushion volatility.

Nominal and real interest rates matter in different ways

Around the world, real interest rates are now unusually low or even negative. The hunt for real yield that’s become a preoccupation of investors is likely to remain a dominant feature of investment markets for several years at least.

The consequences of sustained budget deficits

The Federal Government should run balanced budgets over the economic cycle, otherwise uncertainties build up and costs are imposed because the bills still have to be paid somehow.

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Economy

Why we should follow Canada and cut migration

An explosion in low-skilled migration to Australia has depressed wages, killed productivity, and cut rental vacancy rates to near decades-lows. It’s time both sides of politics addressed the issue.

Investing

Simple maths says the AI investment boom ends badly

This AI cycle feels less like a revolution and more like a rerun. Just like fibre in 2000, shale in 2014, and cannabis in 2019, the technology or product is real but the capital cycle will be brutal. Investors beware.

Property

Australian house price speculators: What were you thinking?

Australian housing’s 50-year boom was driven by falling rates and rising borrowing power — not rent or yield. With those drivers exhausted, future returns must reconcile with economic fundamentals. Are we ready?

Shares

ASX reporting season: Room for optimism

Despite mixed ASX results, the market has shown surprising resilience. With rate cuts ahead and economic conditions improving, investors should look beyond short-term noise and position for a potential cyclical upswing.

Property

A Bunnings play without the hefty price tag

BWT Trust has moved to bring management in house. Meanwhile, many of the properties it leases to Bunnings have been repriced to materially higher rents. This has removed two of the key 'snags' holding back the stock.

Investment strategies

Replacing bank hybrids with something similar

With APRA phasing out bank hybrids from 2027, investors must reassess these complex instruments. A synthetic hybrid strategy may offer similar returns but with greater control and clearer understanding of risks.

Shares

Nvidia's CEO is selling. Here's why Aussie investors should care

The magnitude of founder Jensen Huang’s selldown may seem small, but the signal is hard to ignore. When the person with the clearest insight into the company’s future starts cashing out, it’s worth asking why.

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