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Home / Author: Don Stammer

Don Stammer

Investors are too relaxed about inflation risks

It's too easy to think the future will be a simple extrapolation of the recent past. Just because inflation has been well under control in recent years doesn't mean we should ignore the inflation risks.

Why we’re talking about 'secular stagnation'

Secular stagnation can result from a sustained lack of demand or low growth in productivity, and can create low or negative investment returns. Could this happen in Australia?

Investors need to allow for future cycles

Economic and investment market cycles do not make for a comfortable ride when making investment decisions and they’re not about to disappear despite numerous smoothing attempts. Face it, cycles just happen.

Liquidity is abundant despite QE wind down

Despite the Federal Reserve's tapering of its QE policy, liquidity in developed economies will remain abundant with the major central banks adding another USD1 trillion in 2014. But watch for global inflation.

Happy 30th, $A float best policy change in post-war era

Let's celebrate the positive effects of a floating exchange rate and the way it adjusts to make economic policy more effective. With some exceptions, a floating currency acts as a shock absorber to cushion volatility.

Nominal and real interest rates matter in different ways

Around the world, real interest rates are now unusually low or even negative. The hunt for real yield that’s become a preoccupation of investors is likely to remain a dominant feature of investment markets for several years at least.

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Superannuation

The 'Contrast Principle' used by super fund test failures

Rather than compare results against APRA's benchmark, large super funds which failed the YFYS performance test are using another measure such as a CPI+ target, with more favourable results to show their members.

Property

RBA switched rate priority on house prices versus jobs

RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.

Investment strategies

Disruptive innovation and the Tesla valuation debate

Two prominent fund managers with strongly opposing views and techniques. Cathie Wood thinks Tesla is going to US$3,000, Rob Arnott says it's already a bubble at US$750. They debate valuing growth and disruption.

Shares

4 key materials for batteries and 9 companies that will benefit

Four key materials are required for battery production as we head towards 30X the number of electric cars. It opens exciting opportunities for Australian companies as the country aims to become a regional hub.

Shares

Why valuation multiples fail in an exponential world

Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.

Shares

Five value chains driving the ‘transition winners’

The ability to adapt to change makes a company more likely to sustain today’s profitability. There are five value chains plus a focus on cashflow and asset growth that the 'transition winners' are adopting.

Superannuation

Halving super drawdowns helps wealthy retirees most

At the start of COVID, the Government allowed early access to super, but in a strange twist, others were permitted to leave money in tax-advantaged super for another year. It helped the wealthy and should not be repeated.

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