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16 March 2026
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Consumer spending directly impacts corporate earnings, sector performance and market sentiment. The latest data from different economies uncover risks and pockets of opportunity for investors.
Despite recession predictions, consumer activity and corporate earnings are holding up well. Global long-term interest rates probably peaked last October, and there are signs of corporate earnings re-acceleration.
At least 8 million tonnes of plastics leak into the ocean each year, equivalent to one garbage truck every minute. This is expected to double by 2030. Such pollution brings risks and opportunities for many companies.
Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.
Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.
Statistics measuring investor sentiment are often flawed but the market's reaction to such statistics is even more misguided. It's likely that shares will be sold more than justified when rates rise.
The current level of fear in the market could be signalling a downturn or even another GFC. Investors should remember the lessons from the last crisis, and be in a position to take advantage of the next one.
Current economic policy is failing to revive the corporate sector's animal spirits, as spending by consumers remains weak except for a few sectors like food, cafes and restaurants.
Confidence is important but can be misleading in terms of what is actually going on. Our emotions, which make us human, need to be balanced by facts, especially when we think times are grim.
It's not surprising that research shows high levels of satisfaction for self managed portfolios, as investors are effectively rating themselves. Regardless of the reason, few SMSFs will return to an institutional fund.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
One in five Australians die before retirement and most have not set up their super properly so their loved ones can benefit from all their hard work and savings.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.
An ageing Australia is shifting the superannuation system’s focus from accumulation to the lifecycle of retirement. While these pressures have been anticipated for decades, they are now converging at scale and driving widespread industry change.