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Wednesday, 2 December 2020
Recently trending Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 383Five ways the Retirement Review points to new policiesGraeme Shaw on why investing is at a pivotal momentRetirement Review gives strong views on hoarding of super11 key findings on retirement dreams during the pandemic
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Howard Marks is the largest investor in the world in distressed securities. What does he think after checking the virus positives and negatives, and how much has he changed his mind in only a few days?
For value investing to remain a rational strategy, mean reversion must hold true, which requires supportive economic conditions. But historical ranges are not relevant to companies losing market share.
Sovereign Wealth Funds control hundreds of billions of dollars of investments, and how they change their asset allocations can affect prices across listed and unlisted markets.
The Big 4 banks make up nearly 30% of the ASX, and Australian shares make up a significant proportion of most multi-asset portfolios. Even if you can't resist the bank dividends, you should review your level of exposure.
Investing into bonds when you know you will lose money sounds crazy, but aside from interest rates, there’s deflation, economic stability, safety and currency issues to consider.
Fundamentals might not be making a lot of sense right now, but sooner or later mean reversion will kick in. Nobody knows the timing but you should be standing near the exit doors to take advantage of it.
The ‘economics of retirement outcomes’ is a concept that explores how economic developments can affect retirement outcomes. The current soft labour market is one of those developments.
It's all too easy for companies to point the finger at external factors to explain poor performance, but when the same excuses are repeated year after year, it's time to look within for the real cause.
One of the downsides of Donald Trump commanding the headlines is that we skim over other significant issues. For example, few Australians read the China Daily News or coverage of its contents, missing official statements that are terrifying hundreds of Australian producers. China says Australia will 'pay tremendously' for its recent lack of respect.
The Retirement Income Review goes much further than an innocent-sounding 'fact base', and is sure to guide policies in the run up to the next election. It will change how we think about retirement incomes.
Company profits have not improved for many years but higher valuations have been driven by falling rates and excess liquidity. Conditions do not suit a value and contrarian manager but here are some opportunities.
The Review includes some profound findings, most notable that retirement income should include drawing down far more capital. Expect post-retirement products to proliferate under a Retirement Income Covenant.
A mid-pandemic survey of over 1,000 people near or in retirement found three in four are not confident how long their money will last. Only 18% felt their money was safe during a strong economic downturn.
Banks severely cut dividends in 2020 but are expected to improve payments in 2021. History provides clues to when the banks will return to their 2019 levels of profitability, but who is positioned the best?