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18 April 2024
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Former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane says our economy has held up well given the sharp spike in interest rates. He thinks that economic strength plus high inflation mean rates are more likely to go higher than lower in 2024.
Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree have wiped out the RBA's equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory. How did it happen and what lessons can be learned?
News nowadays seems to have become even more negative with constant stories of disasters, conflict, wrongdoing, grievance and loss. These risks can’t be ignored yet the history of investing suggests that pessimism doesn’t pay.
The response to inflation in advanced economies has seen rapid interest rate rises, but the money supply has remained elevated, particularly in Australia. Should the RBA be doing more to reduce its balance sheet?
The concentrated nature of 2023’s equities gains – driven by a handful of mega-cap technology and internet companies – hides signs of increasing vulnerability within markets. It's time to get defensive and buy quality stocks.
The 60/40 portfolio has performed poorly during the recent period of high inflation. With peak inflation likely behind us, here's a stock-take on the year so far and what it might imply for portfolios going forward.
The Aussie dollar hit 80 US cents in late 2020 but has generally been in the 65-70 cents range for the last year. The exchange rate has a major impact on returns from unhedged offshore investments, so what's the outlook?
Despite the attention on Bitcoin, gold outperformed almost every asset class in AUD terms in 2022. Gold traditionally performs inversely to the US dollar, which may have topped out after a multi-year bull run.
The RBA and interest rate markets are underestimating inflationary pressures. Combined with a government intent on increasing wages, there's a risk of entrenching higher inflation in Australia compared to elsewhere.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.
Cryptocurrency advocates are in total denial that their war against fiat currency has ended. FTX’s downfall should prove the final straw as the the world is moving on from crypto mania and it'll be better off for it.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.