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28 February 2026
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Markets benefitted from peace for 40 years, but a military resurgence is now underway, fuelled by geopolitical tensions and technological advancements. Defence spending is soaring, offering potential opportunities for investors.
The Aussie dollar hit 80 US cents in late 2020 but has generally been in the 65-70 cents range for the last year. The exchange rate has a major impact on returns from unhedged offshore investments, so what's the outlook?
Stagflation occurs when economic growth slows (stagnation) and prices rise (inflation), and while this scenario has been evident for a while now, is it really the same as the last time, over 40 years ago?
Investors ask whether global supply chains were stretched too far and too complex, and following COVID, is globalisation dead? New research suggests the impact on investment returns will not be as great as feared.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
China takes 40% of our exports and BHP, RIO and Fortescue generate 41% of Australian listed company profits. Trade tensions are hitting more companies and they need to diversify their revenue sources.
Australia prides itself on being an open, trading nation, but we rank a poor 106th in the world on trade system productivity. We have not digitalised, failing to set up a competitive recovery from COVID.
Our close links to China mean the impact of the virus could tip the local economy into recession and certain sectors such as resources, education and travel will be harder hit than others.
Free trade is more at risk than at any time in almost a century, and yet trade restrictions will increase prices for those who can least afford it, and prop up inefficient industries.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.