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Bond opportunities in a higher rate world

As investors navigate a potential recession and the possibility of higher interest rates for longer, the lure of fixed income is understandable. Here a primer to help investors decide which bonds may be best for them.

The bright outlook for Australian fixed income

The Australian fixed income landscape has changed with conditions now likely to provide many of the defensive attributes that investors have traditionally expected. Asset allocations should be reviewed to reflect this.

Why have bond fund distributions been shrinking?

The momentous rise in government bond yields since last year has had one unexpected effect: shrinking income distributions. This may be surprising given bond managers have been able to reinvest at progressively higher yields.

Why 'Don't fight the Fed' now has a different meaning

The Fed has finally signalled its intention to control inflation by reducing demand, and investors must become less comfortable with their financial prospects. Investing has changed and the consequences are serious.

Inflation? Nothing (much) to see here

There are plenty of voices on both sides of the inflation argument, but the ultimate impact of COVID should be deflationary. Australia is one of the last places to expect worrying signs of inflation rising.

Are debt and its servicing cost serious worries?

The impact of the pandemic on Australia's debt and deficit has forced the government into borrowing on a scale unimaginable at the start of 2020. What are the implications, and what is even more important?

One last hurrah for the 60/40 portfolio?

The 60/40 diversified portfolio has been the mainstay of the superannuation industry for decades. But it is built on a fundamental principle of defensive bond returns, and its time is nigh.

Why 2020 has been the year of the bond market

Going back to June 2019, investors would have questioned the logic of diversifying away from outperforming growth assets. But when markets feel at their best, it is paramount to keep a perspective on long-term goals.

Less than 1% for 100 years: watch the price risk on long bonds

Do you think investors can only lose heavily on bonds if the credit defaults? When bondholders accept 0.88% for 100 years, there is great potential for serious pain somewhere along the journey.

Why are Aussie bond yields at lowest ever?

Australian bond rates are now lower than during recessions and depressions of the past, but it's not driven by local fundamentals. The world of interest rates is in a place it's never been before in history.

Briefly, on the role of government bonds

We like a good debate, and when two opposing views argued about the role of government bonds in a diversified portfolio, a veteran of 30 years in fixed interest stepped in as referee.

Government bonds always have a role in diversified portfolios

Government bonds do not feature in most retail portfolios, but they carry defensive qualities with income to offset the higher risks in other asset allocations. Are they always worth including?

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The greatest investor you’ve never heard of

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Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

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