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6 July 2025
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Here's a detailed look at how current valuations and profit forecasts for the S&P 500 stack up versus history. The answer? Both seem excessive, making the market vulnerable to a correction or worse.
Companies have been slow to update guidance and we have yet to see the impact of inflation expectations in earnings and outlooks. Companies need to insulate costs from inflation while enjoying an uptick in revenue.
Weaker share prices may have already discounted some bad news, but cost inflation is creating wide divergences inside and across sectors. Early results show some companies are strong enough to resist sector falls.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
We are witnessing a shift away from new, “exciting, visionary, ground-breaking companies” to well-established, quality businesses, with resilient cash flows, that make good profits and have solid growth prospects.
It was a joy ride while it lasted but the free money era could not last. The consequences of the misallocation of capital into poor companies is now playing out and shareholders face billions of dollars in losses.
We tend to call any change a 'disruption', but the vast majority of so-called disruptive technologies are variations on a theme. Many innovations are really high-risk, low-probability investments.
Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.
Exogenous factors like macro changes and weather can affect a company’s short-term profits. Management often blames uncontrollable factors for earnings downgrades but rarely owns up to a fortuitous tailwind.
Dividend streams tend to be stable and determined by fundamental factors. Unlike capital valuations, which are affected by estimates of prospective returns which are, in turn, strongly affected by market sentiment.
LICs can sustain their dividends not only from current year profits, but from reserves built up in prior years. This report looks at reserve levels as a sign of consistency of future dividends.
A 'Goldilocks economy' is one which runs neither too hot nor too cold. A combination of steady global growth, benign inflation and easy monetary conditions is carrying share markets to higher levels.
The Government's proposed tax has copped a lot of flack though I think it's a reasonable approach to improve the long-term sustainability of superannuation and the retirement income system. Here’s why.
You've no doubt heard about Division 296. These case studies show what people at various levels above the $3 million threshold might need to pay the ATO, with examples ranging from under $500 to more than $35,000.
The $3m super tax could be put down to the Government needing money and the wealthy being easy targets. It’s deeper than that though and this looks at the factors behind the policy and why more taxes on the wealthy are coming.
The super tax has caused an almighty scuffle, but for SMSFs impacted by the proposed tax, a big question remains: what should they do now? Here are ideas for those wanting to withdraw money from their SMSF.
Australia's superannuation inequities date back to poor decisions made by Parliament two decades ago. If super for the wealthy needs resetting, so too does the defined benefits schemes for our public servants.
Business investment and per capita GDP have languished over the past decade and the Labor Government is conducting inquiries to find out why. Franking credits should be part of the debate about our stalling economy.