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20 April 2024
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The current bank turmoil should not be a GFC-type event, although the risk of tightening credit conditions is real. Volatile markets are an opportunity to buy strong, growing companies trading at attractive valuations.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
With bond rates and Reserve Bank actions driving equity markets and inflationary expectations, it pays to understand what is really happening in both central bank and commercial bank balance sheets.
Higher volatility, higher funding costs, US rate rises with AUD interest rates decoupling, Quantitative Tightening, maturing bond reinvestment flows all point to a difficult 2018.
A counter-view on why bond yields are so low, and how the market can still use and interpret what bonds are telling us. Plus Roger responds that different opinions make a market, and that's good.
It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.
This period of ultra low interest rates and government-stimulated economies has created an overly optimistic view of world economic growth, which will have implications for future retirement savings returns.
The European Central Bank was reluctant to embrace a QE strategy following the GFC. But in late 2014 it was introduced to fight deflationary forces and boost growth in the euro-zone. The question is: will it work?
October 2014 marks the end of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy it called ‘quantitative easing’. The Fed’s aim was to create inflation, increase bank lending and depress the US dollar to help exporters. Did it work?
Unemployment and inflation seem to be heading in different directions in Australia and the United States, but the outcomes for interest rates and equity markets might be the same.
A positive view on US growth but some concerns around possible inflation effects and the unwinding of QE. Growth may give a tailwind but it is rarely the most important factor determining market returns.
The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.
Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.
Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.
Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.