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2 February 2026
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The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The US dollar’s long-standing role as a ‘shock absorber’ during times of market stress is showing cracks. The ‘Liberation Day’ sell-off was a timely reminder of this, and here's what investors should do about it.
The US dollar’s overvaluation, weaker fundamentals, and crowded positioning point to further downside. Diversifying into non-US equities and emerging market debt may offer opportunities for global investors.
Global credit markets face a fundamental shift as US dollar dominance wanes. Australian investment-grade credit, with attractive spreads and stability, may emerge as a key beneficiary in this structural capital reallocation.
It wasn't long ago that investors were asking if US exceptionalism could continue. They now appear to be diversifying away from dollar assets and shifting to a more active US equity allocation.
Australian-based investors have been perplexed by the steep rise in CBA's share price But it's becoming clear that US funds are buying into our largest bank as a hedge against potential QE and further falls in the US dollar.
As the US debt ceiling looms, the usual warnings about a potential crash in bond and equity markets have started to appear. Investors can take confidence from history but should keep an eye on two main indicators.
Last year, gold surged 38% higher in Australian dollars, fuelled by investment demand and global risks. This year's outlook suggests potential for continued gold strength amid geopolitical uncertainties and currency vulnerabilities.
The Aussie dollar hit 80 US cents in late 2020 but has generally been in the 65-70 cents range for the last year. The exchange rate has a major impact on returns from unhedged offshore investments, so what's the outlook?
Claims that Bitcoin has characteristics of 'digital gold' by protecting against equity market falls in troubled times are not supported by recent price moves. Crypto relies on supporters pumping up speculative gains.
2022 is another example of gold providing portfolio protection when it’s needed most. Australian investors may be able to magnify the protective benefits by purchasing gold in Australian dollars.
What are the best ways to build a simple portfolio from scratch? I’ve addressed this issue before but think it’s worth revisiting given markets and the world have since changed, throwing up new challenges and things to consider.
At this time last year, I forecast that 2025 would likely be a positive year given strong economic prospects and disinflation. The outlook for this year is less clear cut and here is what investors should do.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We don’t have a housing shortage; we have housing misallocation. This explores why so many bedrooms go unused, what’s been tried before, and five things to unlock housing capacity – no new building required.