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21 May 2025
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Behind market volatility and tariff threats lies a deeper strategy. Trump’s real goal isn’t trade reform but managing America's massive debts, preserving bond market confidence, and preparing for potential QE.
While appointing a seasoned banker to lead a US sovereign wealth fund sounds promising, the plan itself could expose the country to massive risks, market distortions, and dangerous expansions of presidential power.
Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.
What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.
The more the US needs capital and funding, the higher its currency goes. For Australia, this has become a significant problem as the US draws our capital to sustain its growth, putting pressure on our economy and the Aussie dollar.
The US has become the world's new energy superpower, combining production, technology and capital in a way never previously achieved – a development sure to have global implications for decades to come.
Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.
Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan is the most powerful commercial banker in the world, and his just-released letter to shareholders warns that while the current economy looks fine, the storm clouds ahead differ from the past.
The recently passed Inflation Reduction Act is poised to have a significant impact on the US economy, especially in the renewable energy sector. Australia is well placed given our minerals are critical to decarbonisation.
Australia's economy is in good shape after the extraordinary shift in global markets over the past 12 months, but here are nine macro and geopolitical factors for investors to check in a rapidly-changing world.
Central banks and markets disagree on how high and for how long interest rates will remain elevated. US stocks may not have bottomed, though bonds should have a better year as markets sweat on a Federal Reserve pivot.
The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.
Labor has announced a $2.3 billion Cheaper Home Batteries Program, aimed at slashing the cost of home batteries. The goal is to turbocharge battery uptake, though practical difficulties may prevent that happening.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?
Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.
While many chase high yields, true investment power lies in companies that steadily grow dividends. This strategy, rooted in patience and discipline, quietly compounds wealth and anchors investors through market turbulence.