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Friday, 25 June 2021
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If the world’s largest economy adopted a true MMT framework, the investment implications would be enormous. Economic growth would be materially greater but inflation and interest rates would also be much higher.
US growth forecasts for 2021 are as high as 8%, so is the massive stimulus a superfluous ‘sugar hit’ amid shrinking spare capacity? High government debt points to taxes and reduced benefits, with inflation risks.
Biden is close but Republicans will likely hold the Senate. A split Congress has historically resulted in higher market returns. Investors should note that company earnings, not elections, drive the stock market.
If he wins, Joe Biden will enter office with a weak mandate relative to expectations due to the underperformance of his party, but the executive branch wields a great deal of power in the regulatory framework.
The US is days away from a presidential election with major repercussions for economic policy and investments in the US and the world. Views from First Sentier Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management.
Rob Arnott is a leading researcher, fund manager and academic often quoted in US media. We chatted at a moment in time when President Trump must make some critical calls on coronavirus.
Quantum computers have a theoretical ability to calculate millions of possibilities in seconds, yet it may take time before we see a breakthrough in the practical applications of sub-atomic computing.
Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.
Stocks are vulnerable if interest rates rise much faster than expected on inflation concerns. What is the probability of this heightened risk and what are the consequences for portfolios?
Even the experts concede that the more you know, the less you can be sure. Donald Trump is playing a game of brinkmanship with the trade wars, and it could end badly. Or not.
Australian credit markets have had a good run, and any investor tempted to exit the sector should consider whether a move now is too early in the cycle. A period of range-bound stability is the more likely outcome.
President-elect Donald Trump divides opinion, and there is no way of knowing whether the rhetoric that won him the top job will translate into action. Here's a quick look at some implications.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Jeremy Grantham has seen it all before, with bubbles every 15 years or so. The higher you go, the longer and greater the fall. You can have a high-priced asset or a high-yielding asset, but not both at the same time.
The focus on predicting the recovery from the pandemic is the wrong emphasis. Better to identify great companies benefitting from market changes over a three- to five-year horizon with or without COVID.
Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.
Blink and it happened. If announcements in this sector were made by a producer of iron ore, gas, copper or some new tech, the news would have been splashed across the front pages. Have we witnessed a major change?
A comprehensive review of dozens of LICs shows how they performed in the crucial 'peak to peak' of COVID. This 14 months tested the mettle and strategies of a sector often under fire, with many strong results.