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21 reasons we’re nearing the end of a secular bull market

Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.

History says US market outperformance versus Australia will turn

Much has been made of how US markets, especially the NASDAQ, have significantly outperformed the ASX over the past two decades. History suggests the pendulum will swing back once again in Australia's favour.

Investors might be paying too much for familiarity

US mega-cap tech stocks have dominated recent returns - but is familiarity distorting judgement? Like the Monty Hall problem, investing success often comes from switching when it feels hardest to do so.

Mapping future US market returns

Exceptional returns from the US sharemarket over the past decade have driven by sales growth, margin expansion, rising valuations, and dividends. Predicting future returns requires careful consideration of these factors.

How can you not be bullish the US?

Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.

New avenues of growth make 2025 exciting for investors

Investors need to be more discerning this year as headline valuations are high and the economic cycle turns. Dig a little deeper, though, and there are big opportunities in overlooked shares with strong tailwinds.

Warren Buffett's sweetest investment

One of Buffett's most successful investments has been a confectionery company that he bought more than 50 years ago. The investment demonstrates that stocks need not be growth companies to create fortunes.

Should you buy and hold an Artificial Intelligence portfolio?

For those with the patience to own an investment as volatile as the AI sector, buying and holding a stock basket might make sense. However, based on internet stocks’ history, you need not rush to do so.

20 US stocks to buy and hold forever

Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.

Are expectations for the Magnificent Seven too high?

Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?

A guide to investing in a US election year

US Presidential elections can be divisive and unsettling, and at times, it can seem like the fate of the world hangs in the balance. But when it comes to investing, do elections really matter all that much?

Don't be fooled: a recessionary hit is coming

The concentrated nature of 2023’s equities gains – driven by a handful of mega-cap technology and internet companies – hides signs of increasing vulnerability within markets. It's time to get defensive and buy quality stocks.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Ray Dalio on 2025’s real story, Trump, and what’s next

The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.

Making sense of record high markets as the world catches fire

The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.

3 ways to fix Australia’s affordability crisis

Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.

Is there a better way to reform the CGT discount?

The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.

How cutting the CGT discount could help rebalance housing market

A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 648 with weekend update

This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.

  • 5 February 2026

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