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Tuesday, 26 May 2020

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Us Federal Reserve

1-12 out of 13 results.

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

Why we’re not buying the market yet

The Australian market bounced back last Friday (13th) and Monday (16th) tempting analysts to call the bottom of the coronavirus scare. This is too early as the impact on companies is not yet evident.

Quantum computing would be a world-changing technological leap

Quantum computers have a theoretical ability to calculate millions of possibilities in seconds, yet it may take time before we see a breakthrough in the practical applications of sub-atomic computing.

Policymakers fear cutting stimulus can lead to recession

Prolonging a recovery with stimulus could lead to a worse slump later. Even today, policymakers are haunted by actions taken in 1937 which led to a loss of production and jobs and a falling GDP.

Markets relying on central bank sugar hits

Global central banks are delivering a sugar hit that markets are relying on, but it is unsustainable. Interest rates cannot continue to be cut into negative territory forever. 

Central banks risk losing their feted ‘independence’

Central bank independence was an appropriate solution when inflation was a threat. In today’s low-inflation, low-growth and high-debt world, even central banks doubt their level of influence.  

Floating rate bonds rise in popularity

With US interest rates on the rise and the prospect of Australian rates heading the same way, floating rate bonds have increased in popularity as they allow investors to benefit from increasing rates.

Five reasons Australian rates unlikely to follow US

It's not long ago when Australian bond rates were well above US bond rates, and now they are the same in the 10 years. Factors affecting Australian monetary policy will not mirror US rises through 2018.

Volatility and reflecting on the inflection

It took Wall Street and equity investors a long time to realise interest rates had gone through an inflection, and the era of the easiest money conditions in a lifetime is now over.

Global turmoil likely to make Fed patient

The US Fed has finally lifted interest rates as anticipated, but from here it's especially difficult to predict future rate changes given that current economic conditions would normally dictate lowering rates.

Impact of QE on markets opposite of expected

October 2014 marks the end of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy it called ‘quantitative easing’. The Fed’s aim was to create inflation, increase bank lending and depress the US dollar to help exporters. Did it work?

Beyond the hype, a beginner’s guide to QE

We read about Quantitative Easing and tapering every day, but what are they and do they work? Should we worry about them? One thing is for sure - both subjects will be with us for many years to come.

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Buffett's meeting takeaway: extreme caution

Warren Buffett's annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway showed he has not been 'investing while others are fearful' during the crisis. lt's a reminder to take caution and preserve cash.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 356

Few investors are as influential as Warren Buffett, although for the moment, the market is ignoring his caution. The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway revealed Buffett did not use the heavy market falls in February to buy shares. Rather than 'buy when others are fearful', he was a net seller of US$6 billion for the quarter, disposing of all airline shares. Berkshire is sitting on US$137 billion in cash, suggesting he expects better buying opportunities to come.

  • 7 May 2020

The vibe of future returns: tell ‘em they’re dreamin’

It's the vibe, but not much else. Super balance calculations default to earnings rates of 7.5%, but that's in the past. Global experts suggest financial plans are now dreaming at this level.

Baseline outlook for economic recovery is too optimistic

We cannot throw our hands up in the air and say 'this time around, it's simply too hard'. Having no macro view is unhelpful, but many of the baseline scenarios are overly optimistic, says the former CEO of Westpac and now Chairman of Chi-X Australia.

Retiree spending patterns differ from most expectations

A study of actual spending habits shows retirees have a faster-than-expected drop-off in spending in later years, casting doubts on financial plans that assume increasing expenditure over time.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 357

There is a remarkable concentration similarity between the Australian and US stock markets that has delivered poor results for Australians and great results for Americans (and global investors). As the share prices of five Australian banks have tanked, the prices of five US technology companies have surged. Each group now represents 20% of their respective indexes, but the journey has been a disaster for many Australians.

  • 13 May 2020

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