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Will the RBA cut rates before the Fed?

Market consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates well ahead of the RBA. The latest data has cast doubt on this, raising the prospect of an earlier RBA cut to prop up a faltering economy.

Druckenmiller on the biggest mistake in the history of the Fed

Fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller gave a much-publicised interview at the 2023 Sohn Conference in the US last week. In this extract, he warns about the asset bubble the US Fed has created and his dire expectations.

Will gold continue to shine in 2023?

Despite the attention on Bitcoin, gold outperformed almost every asset class in AUD terms in 2022. Gold traditionally performs inversely to the US dollar, which may have topped out after a multi-year bull run.

The world's about to hit a brick wall

The Federal Reserve rate hikes will crunch demand from businesses and consumers in the US. But their greatest impact will be on countries outside America that will be starved of capital when they need it most.

The paradox of investment cycles

Now we're captivated by inflation and higher rates but only a year ago, investors were certain of the supremacy of US companies, the benign nature of inflation and the remoteness of tighter monetary policy.

Why 'Don't fight the Fed' now has a different meaning

The Fed has finally signalled its intention to control inflation by reducing demand, and investors must become less comfortable with their financial prospects. Investing has changed and the consequences are serious.

Time to give up on gold?

In 2021, the gold price failed to sustain its strong rise since 2018, although it recovered after early losses. But where does gold sit in a world of inflation, rising rates and a competitor like Bitcoin?

US rate rises would challenge multi-asset diversified portfolios

In the wake of persistent inflation, the Fed may jams down hard on the monetary brakes, leading to upward moves in bond yields. There may be a significant correction in equity markets, but what would the RBA do?

Most Australians live better than the Rockefellers

It's tempting to focus on the negatives of the pandemic, the US election, the China/US cold war and inequality. But technology is delivering benefits that even wealthy people in the past could not have imagined.

Depression or recovery? The risk of time

It is always easier to see the challenges and risks while underestimating ingenuity and positive possibilities. It's likely to be the case this time, too, as long as we move quickly to open economies.

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

Why we’re not buying the market yet

The Australian market bounced back last Friday (13th) and Monday (16th) tempting analysts to call the bottom of the coronavirus scare. This is too early as the impact on companies is not yet evident.

Most viewed in recent weeks

11 ASX dividend stocks for the next decade

What are the best stocks to own that can pay regular dividends and beat indices on a total return basis in the long-term? Here is our list of 11 ASX-listed companies that could help investors achieve these goals.

2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Time to smash the retirement nest egg - but how?

For decades, governments told people to save for retirement, then hold onto their nest eggs. Now, they're concerned that retirees aren't spending enough. How can we encourage reasonable spending patterns in retirement?

The greatest investor you’ve never heard of

Jim Simons has achieved breathtaking returns of 62% p.a. over 33 years, a track record like no other, yet he remains little known to the public. Here’s how he’s done it, and the lessons that can be applied to our own investing.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

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